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Old 27-06-2018, 09:37 AM
cfn
Cloud Free Night Team

cfn is offline
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 218
Lightbulb Different Forecast models

We often get asked why, in the meteogram/darksky, sections the first 36h of ACCESS-C data differ from the ACCESS-R data. Which one is right? Or GFS says it will be overcast but ACCESS says it is going to be clear. Is it going to be clear or cloudy?

The short answer is that they are different models and updated at different times during the day. So as well as looking at different models you also might be looking at different time frames.

There are two small fine prints at the bottom of the graphic tiles. On the bottom left, the date of the bitmap generation and on the bottom right the time. This is your first hint to know if you are looking at new or old data. To see when the data gets updated check our F.A.Q.

GFS and ACCESS are different models. ACCESS seems to get it right more often than not for regional Australian weather. If the two models are in accordance then the odds are better than if they say two opposite things.

You cannot make a decision about a clear night by looking at one product only. For example don't base your decision solely on a clear meteogram or map forecast. Have a look at the satellite and radar maps. Play a short animation. If a storm front is approaching chances are it is not going to be clear whether you like it or not.

So to recap there are many different tools on CFN to help you make an informed decision to plan your night. Have a look around and don't rely on only one source of information.
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