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I agree to some extent with Greg's assessment. This looks like a combination of differential flexure and some tilt. I am assuming these images are guided? If guided then the following is my assessment.
If the elongation gets longer over a period of 2 minutes, then longer again over 5 minutes you know this is flexure.
The tilt is evident because elongation on the 45 second shot is not consistent over the entire image. That indicates tilt.
If no guiding is applied, try guiding for a couple of images. Check your balance too. These mounts require near perfect balance in both axis, having counter weight heavy or scope heavy does not apply with these mounts.
I would also work a little more on you PA. While ok it should be better and will help to improve your pointing accuracy.
Also why have you got tube flexure ticked in your model? Your scope would not need this correction in the model.
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