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Old 06-03-2013, 08:26 AM
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tonybarry (Tony)
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Hi Carl,

I refer you to the following paper which may possibly answer your doubts.

http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~asimow/T...Seismo_958.pdf

The original speculation was that the inner solar system would be less safe for travel as a result of a >50km/sec impact on Mars by a >20km cometary body, primarily as a result of ejecta from the impact exceeding Martian escape velocity and entering into unpredictable orbits around the sun.

The question might be better posed as, "How much more likely is a micrometeoroid impact on a spacecraft in Martian or Earth orbit as a result of this (as yet uncertain) impact ?"

To that question I have no answer as yet. Gut feelings (always dubious as I am sure you are aware) tell me that it will significantly raise the risk. Hard numbers would be much more confidence building. To that end I continue to investigate.

Note that the paper by O'Keefe cited above is by an author who advocates the non-terrestrial origin of tektites. In this, the balance of opinion has shifted towards a terrestrial origin (i.e local impacts) rather than the lunar impacts suggested by O'Keefe.

Regards,
Tony Barry
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