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Old 06-03-2013, 10:22 AM
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tonybarry (Tony)
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Hi Rob,

You are absolutely correct. Leonid Elenin has published a graph of Mote Carlo simulations of the impact probability - and it's probably not a lot better than winning Lotto.

http://spaceobs.org/en/

The most likely outcome is a close pass. And that's all.

As the comet sheds surface material during its time nearer the sun, we can expect that objects in Mars orbit may ***possibly*** experience micro impacts as a result. Phit Plait (of BadAstronomy fame) discusses this.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astro...ober_2014.html

Regards,
Tony Barry
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