Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigS
Hmm … interesting .. I think the knowledge which establishes a demonstrated cause and effect within the closed system, more or less, eliminates the need for predictions of the outcomes within that same system ? 
Chaos theory excludes randomness. Its about non-linear systems, which may have the appearance of randomness … but non-linear relationships can be defined from macro-level observation. This is then used to establish the form of the pattern. The non-linearity implies that the causes are not random .. but are defined by physical laws obscured (to the observer), by complexity.
Cheers |
No, despite there being a connection and a cause-effect mechanism present, the fact is that the effect and its timing is not predictable. I said that you can define a cause and effect mechanism, not predict what will happen and when. Any cause will setup a series of events, but whether in the case it's a reduction or increase of the stress in the opposite sides of the plate is a matter of an indefinite set of variables. The CA quake could have easily released the stress in Japan and mitigated a future quake just as easily as it made one inevitable. Prediction, therefore, is still useful in measuring outcomes in such as system.
If something is non linear, but has a definable pattern it cannot be chaotic, by definition. Non linear systems, despite many appearing random, cannot by chaotic because they follow an underlying order which maybe obscured by complexity, but is still there. Chaos, in the strictest sense of the word, means total randomness with no underlying pattern or order driving the mechanism or system. Therefore Chaos Theory, by definition of what you have written, is not chaotic. Which is a contradiction in terms.
It would be better called Non Linear Systems Theory.