Polar alignment probably way off - seems to be TRYING/fighting, but losing. I had the same issue with an NEQ6 - I would rough align with a compass - and the NEQ6 has enough EM interference that the compass was out 15° or more! There is more ferrous material in an NEQ6 head than I realised.
Also,having oblate stars in the guide image isn't helping you, because PHD and most guide software looks for a centroid position of a circular light mass/pixels. Having weird shapes is NOT helping this at all. The guidescope I assume is a mini-guider, because I also used to get this with the Orion miniguider - just loosen the objective a LITTLE, (releasing the "pinch") and it should improve dramatically. Mine ALWAYS did.
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