Quote:
Originally Posted by Renato1
Again, you have unequivocally stated what I said about the Hiatus was rubbish.
And again you choose to waltz around the issue, without providing any supporting information (leaving it to me to go find it, because you are too slack?). You even call Hadcrut4 data, which together with Hadcrut3 has pretty much been the main driver of the warming debate, cherry picked - even though the IPCC cites it. Astonishing.
And again you refuse to unequivocally acknowledge or deny the existence of an Hiatus - something that is unequivocally acknowledged by the IPCC. They invented the term.
So what is your problem?
Why do you not say "I do not believe it, and where the term Hiatus was first created and used - in the IPCC documents - is rubbish"?
Or "I do believe it, but it really doesn't matter - and I apologise for saying what you said was rubbish?"
I look forward to your next waltz around this.
Regards,
Renato
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My problem is I can do just a little math. As for being slack...yep..I really haven't got the time to run you through my somewhat ancient and dog-eared undergrad Physics tome, Resnick & Halliday.
You have ignored the previous 130 years of data, and have just focused on the last 15, (an incorrect assumption as stated in the IPCC4 preamble)
A pause/hiatus would be zero.
Hence the "rubbish" statement from me, as a positive number, as much as you want to say otherwise, just isn't zero. Capish?
But assuming we just look at 15 years and Hadcrut 4 decadal data is now the new "norm" at just 0.04 degrees... (which I still maintain is a rubbish number)
....the consequences are not good.
No math required, just do the arithmetic
Humanity has been using written forms for about 6000 years.
The blink of an eye in geological scales. But, let's go forward an equivalent timespan.
600 decades x 0.04 degrees per decade = 24 degrees, making the average temperature a balmy 38 degrees C
Record highs would then be 80 degrees or so....
But taking the IPCC4 view (chapter 2, top page 162) derived from independent datasets, from 1880 to 2012 their "best estimate" trend figure is 0.78 degrees per decade.
But let's not go forward 6000 years...and say go forward about the same time as Ramesses II was building most of the Egyptian monuments in the past....say 1300 years
130 decades x 0.78 = 101 degrees C
I invite others to draw their own conclusions. I'm done with this.