Quote:
Originally Posted by andyc
With due apologies for raising it, but Renato, do you realise that the total heat content of Earth has continued to rise unabated over the past 15 years? The "Earth's temperature" is not just the air (2%), but also the oceans (93%), land (2%) and cryosphere (2%). Ignore the oceans, and you ignore almost all the heat that Earth is accumulating due to our enhancement of the greenhouse effect. And the oceans have warmed most in the past 15 years. That enhanced heat trapping effect is the byproduct of a top-of-the-atmosphere energy imbalance brought about by infrared absorption and emission at the wavelength of a certain familiar, but non-condensing triatomic molecule. As astronomers, we should be familiar with the spectral fingerprinting possible due to spectroscopy, which directly confirms this enhanced effect. And extra atmospheric insulation means the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere warms up, an effect not possible if it were simply the Sun wot done it. It ain't the sun!
Back on topic, the Sun has been much quieter than the last solar max that I saw, but there have been a few excellent spot groups to view. You just have to be more patient than in previous decades. It's not a promising thought for visual solar observing if the Sun were to go into a prolonged quiet phase, where this could be as good as it gets for decades  . But that wouldn't change the energy balance by enough watts per square metre to put much of a dent in our warming of the planet. |
Hi Andy,
The good thing about this climate debate is that most of the actual data is available just by Googling. One can read blogger sites like Skeptical Science which claims that the earth is warming at the rate of dozens Hiroshima bombs every second, and start getting scared when they point out effects on the Arctic ice as evidence of their point. Only problem occurs when one then Googles and checks the global sea ice anomaly. Which shows that earth's sea ice is of right now - at record levels. The Arctic has recovered from its lows (it didn't disappear by last year, as many had predicted), and Antarctic sea ice (which is far greater than the Arctic's) just keeps getting bigger. Anyhow, if you check the IPCC 5th Assessment report, they can't figure out why the Antarctic ice just keeps getting bigger, contrary to all predictions of theory.
As for the effect of the sun on temperature, the still unproven theory (from some group in Scandinavia) about the sun's possible role in earth's temperature changes relates to the effect of the solar wind. With an inactive sun, more cosmic rays hit the earth leading to cloud formation at lower levels, and results in a cooler earth. When solar winds predominate from a very active sun, those particles result in clouds forming at higher levels, leading to a warmer earth. (I read that in American Sky&Telescope some years back). I expect it will be some time before that theory is either proven or dis-proven.
But I didn't really want to start a debate about this. What the skeptics were calling a "Pause" since 1998 (for which they were much derided) has now been acknowledged by the IPCC, and they call it an "Hiatus".
Its existence is not debatable anymore.
Anyhow, I still miss the decent sunspots of the early to mid 80s. And I really miss the summer of 1987/1988 - where down here in Melbourne, I got a suntan in the first week of September, Carlton won the premiership on 30 September in 30C heat, and it was beach weather from September through till the very end of May. I even went to the beach on the second of June. By way of contrast, we only had a month and a half of beach weather this year.
Cheers,
Renato