La Nina has returned

[Alchemy]

Vaious news sources are now announcing a return of la Nina, or as we in the Eastern States would refer to as cloudy, non astro friendly.

Only 2-3 weeks ago neutral conditions were prevalent, however things appear to be changing and quickly.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The last 12 months have really been woeful as far as clear skies go, it seems a trend that will continue. Particularly where I live south of the great divide.

For queenslanders that means cyclones, more flooding, perhaps Perth might become the new astro centre, clear skies for months on end.

[MikeyB]

That NOAA report is somewhat slanted towards Northern Hemisphere effects - here's the latest Australian-centric view:

Increased chances of another La Niña in late 2011 (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml)

[Alchemy]

Yes currently saying not as strong as last year, still one to watch though

http://www.news.com.au/national/we-must-be-prepared-to-weather-the-worst/story-e6frfkvr-1226135339871

Still means clouded out down here though, be pretty hard to find anyone down here impressed as far as astronomy goes.

[gary]

Thanks for the heads-up Clive,

The Australian BOM will have an ESNO update tomorrow, 14 Sept 2011, so
it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The BOM web site suggests "It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all
La Niña events re-emerged in the second year".

Many will undoubtedly be hoping that any return this year will be weak.
Many more will be hoping that it is well and truly gone come Cairns November 2012.

[Jen]

Yes it better be gone by then :D

[Alchemy]

That would be the total solar eclipse, Yes clear skies are a must. I don't know if MAREEBA is in the line for the total eclipse it's only a few kilometers away, and we were up there mid July, it has an unusually high proportion of clear sky days due to the topography, if ..... If..... The path of the eclipse goes through there that is THE place to be.

[multiweb]

Wow! I didn't even noticed it had left us. :lol: Oh well, more clouds on the horizon?

[renormalised]

I don't like your chances for the eclipse next year, especially if the La Nina trend continues. In any case, the wet up here usually means cloud from horizon to horizon and raining much of the time. Even when it's not too cloudy, the humidity ruins your day for observing at night. I've lived up here for 37 years and I can tell you now that the weather guys don't always get it right. Observing conditions up here in the mid spring to summer and the early autumn are a day to day proposition. Usually it's a complete loss. So, even though the eclipse is during the day, don't expect the weather to play ball.

[Alchemy]

Looks like you're in the know Carl, would be a terrible shame if it was clouded out. But the weather up there is so predictable, I was there in July 20 overnight 27 during the day..... Like clockwork.

La Nina will only make it worse, still, it is a year away yet..... One to watch.

[renormalised]

Winter is the best time of year up here. The weather is very stable, for the most part. That's why the temps are quite predictable.

During the summer, the tablelands can get very cloudy. But you may strike a good day.

[Ric]

La Nina again, oh great.

Another summer of washing & polishing the bike on Sunday only to see it covered in grime by Monday afternoon.

[Greg Bock]

Awww crap...my timing is uncanny. After a 2 year dormancy, I beefed up my supernova search lists and equipment and started searching again in May 2010, just when la Nina kicked in for us here in SE Qld.

Needless to say it's been a frustrating 12-16 months since (also hardly been able to do any colour imaging from Leyburn either), and looks like its not going to improve much now. Grrrrr

[gary]

ESNO Report by Australian BOM in today, 14 Sept 2011 -



Full report on BOM web site here -
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[CraigS]

Sounds like 'the usual' each-way bet, there Gary !
:)
Cheers

[renormalised]

"It's going to be a fine day, with showers and thunderstorms later on in the afternoon"....sounds like a typical weather report:):P:P

Or, "fine, with a chance of rain":):P:P

[renormalised]

Yep...everyone will move their scopes down there and it'll bucket down for 3 months straight!!!!:P

Central Australia...it'll be one of the rare times the Todd River Regatta is actually held on water!!!!:):P

[Gem]

Life's truths:

New scope = clouds n rain

Being o/s = rugby league team doing well

Following soccer = multiple relegations for my team

Buying shares for the first time = financial crisis

:(

[Alchemy]

Yep know the feeling,

just bought new car, petrol going up plus carbon tax possibility
Just paid for new astro camera... Cloudy for next 12 months
Almost predictable.

Mind you the BOM does love the vague , .... Fine with occasional showers,

[gary]

Hi Craig,

Language that would leave even the best bookmaker scratching their head. :lol:

But I can see where they are coming from to an extent, particularly when they
mention that "The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a
positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA.
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the
chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia."

The El Niño/La Niña Pacific cycle is the one most people have heard of and historically
seems to have been the one studied for longer and in more depth compared to the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Where the events in Australia late last year and early this year were
extraordinary was that there was this "perfect storm" conjunction of an
extremely positive SOI La Niña and an extremely negative Indian Ocean
Dipole. This time around they appear to be saying that at least the IOD is positive,
pulling in the other direction to the weak La Niña as it were, a positive IOD
usually bringing drier weather for southeast and central Australia.

And a positive IOD might be possibly be a win-win for Australia and parts of Africa,
with the hope that at least some parts of the Horn of Africa might get some much
needed rainfall.

[CraigS]

Yes, I suppose its a lot easier to predict once they can see these structures actually forming .. but how about predictions > 1 year in advance ?

These guys think they've got it all sorted …
Can scientists look at next year's climate? (http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-09-scientists-year-climate.html)

(Unfortunately, the paper is behind a paywall).

Hmm .. I'll believe it when I see it being used by the BOM, and making predictions which give folk enough time to batten down the hatches, eh ?

:)
Cheers

[Blue Skies]

What?! Aren't we the astro centre already, with the SKA announcement on the horizon?

On the other hand, while I might be glad of the chance to use some new gear I bought over winter to its full potential I am soooo hoping it is not as hot as it was last year. I just might melt away to nothing... :sadeyes::prey:

[pgc hunter]

Seems like every year, it gets cloudier. Must be Al Gore's most recent fad hard at work :rolleyes:


Clear skies for months on end is nothing unusual in Perffff, yet some of them sandgropers still find it necessary to have a cry the second a cloud appears. Well, I gots some news for youse, try living in Cloudbourne. Never will you sook about your 3200 hours of annual sunshine again.

[marki]

Boohoo, I cant take 364 cloudless clear nights in a row anymore. I am so tired from starring at the stars I might have to head east to mudbourne for a rest :rain: :zzz::P.

Mark

[pgc hunter]

"mudbourne" .... why didn't I think of that... it literally is mudbourne for 3 months of the year

[FJA]

Isn't that the truth! I've just bought a new scope. Usually September to October are warm and clear here. Not this year, I am not going to be able to use the new scope for a while. The Scope Curse is Real.

[Paul Haese]

Might be in the goldi locks zone here in SA. Not too much rain, not too much drought. Just right....:D