6-ton satellite will crash back to Earth

[glenc]

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. UARS
"A defunct NASA science satellite dispatched by a space shuttle crew in 1991 will come crashing back to Earth this month, with debris most likely landing in an ocean or unpopulated region, officials said Friday."
http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre7805vy-us-space-debris/

[astroron]

Thanks Glen:thanx: it would be good to see it heading overhead to ditch in the Pacific Ocean:eyepop:
Cheers :thumbsup:

[jjjnettie]

It can land in my back yard. I wouldn't mind in the least.

[Kevnool]

No wonder the shuttle has been scrubbed. They cant tell where this is going to re enter.

Cheers kev.

[leon]

I'm with you Jeanette, it can land at our camp site near Darwin if it needs too.

Leon

[Waxing_Gibbous]

I hope it hits my house.
I hate my house.

[tlgerdes]

I hope it doesnt hit mine, have just spent 12 months building a new one.:lol:

[Saturn%5]

Like everthing else im sure it will bypass Tasmania :lol:.

[Ric]

There wouldn't be that much left by the time it gets through the atmosphere.

[ZeroID]

Ooooo! OOooo! OOOooo! Souvenir time !!

Apparently about 500 kg or so will survive according to their calculations ...

[glenc]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-17/giant-satellite-plunging-to-earth/2903978
NASA says the giant satellite is plunging to earth more quickly than anticipated and will crash during a three-day window around September 24.

[TinyBlueDot]

Will keep the backyard clear, just in case...:P

Actually, who gets dibs on any bits from man made sattie's that DO land in one's property; are they free for anyone to pick up and keep, or do the guys in suits with radio lapels and dark glasses come to get them???

John

[jjjnettie]

I understand that some satellites have a nuclear power source. This is why they ask you to keep your distance from any fall. That said, I'd definitely be asking the men in black for a souvenir.

[PeterM]

Hmmm ABC radio notes NASA says a 1 in 3200 chance of being hit. Now if that's correct that's better odds than lotto that my observatory will be wiped out and I get a new Meade LX800 through Bintel.
And Ron at Sirius Optics can order me an new Starlight Xpress camera.
PeterM.

[pmrid]

You wouldn't have to mow the lawn again that's for sure - even get a swimming pool (or 6) for free. Trouble is the council would then make you fence it all.
Peter

[astroron]

It can land in my backyard as long as it doesn't hit the house or the observatory :rolleyes:
But Juuust imagin the visitors to Cambroon and all the bread I could make charging an entrance fee :P
Cheers :thumbsup:

[glenc]

Looks like I won't see it.
http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701&lat=-29&lng=153&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=AEST

[PeterM]

Kinda related,
http://bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Natural-Disasters-Hazards/Articles/A0284-Danger-Falling-Objects

PeterM.

[renormalised]

Well, as far as I'm concerned, it can fall anywhere it likes, just so long as it doesn't hit me (or anyone else, for that matter) on the shoulder like that piece that hit that woman they reported on in the news tonight!!!.

However, I'll have my baseball bat out just in case:):P

[Ric]

I was just reading those odds Peter and found one that relates to me.

Hail. The odds a person will be injured by hail in a year are 1 in 5,114,000 (http://bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Natural-Disasters-Hazards/Odds/The-odds-a-person-will-be-injured-by-hail-in-a-year-are-1-in-5-114-000-US-1995-2007). According to the National Weather Service, 718 people were injured by hail between 1995 and 2007. And the number killed? Just five. The odds a person will be killed by hail in a year, then, are 1 in 734,400,000 (http://bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Natural-Disasters-Hazards/Odds/The-odds-a-person-will-be-killed-by-hail-in-a-year-are-1-in-734-400-000-US-1995-2007).

I was riding my motorbike home with an open face helmet a few years ago when a hail storm started. I actually copped a lump in the mouth resulting in a split lip.

So I am one of those people in the 1 in 5,000,000 category.

[glenc]

I saw UARS go over last night. Might see it again tonight.

[Jen]

:rofl::rofl: lol jj we so think alike i was just about to post same thing haha :P

[glenc]

Re-entry is expected some time on Friday, although it could happen as early as Thursday or as late as Saturday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/19/us-space-debris-nasa-idUSTRE78I5GE20110919

[glenc]

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
This map shows the predicted re-entry point. I will check this map again tomorrow.
It passes here at 6:47 am and 4:02 pm on 23/9. If it crashes it should be visible in daylight!
Supposed to crash between 4pm Fri and 8pm Sat our time. It passes near Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth.

[Kevnool]

And still no drop zone

[Spanrz]

Watching this closely. NASA has confirmed that the US won't get hit. That leaves higher probability for us?
There is 2 passes early Sat morn for me, so it'll be down to what pass it deorbits on. Oooooooh another Skylab?

[mswhin63]

I am hoping it will be an evening pass during DSO evening

[Danack]

Is there anywhere online that shows it's current altitude? Or somewhere you can signup to get the two hour re-entry warning?

[jjjnettie]

This is the one you want. :D

http://www.n2yo.com

[Mliss]

:D thanks for that link JJJ. very cool! it's actually passing over Australia right now!

[Danack]

"Mr Legault, an engineer, used a specially designed camera to record the tumbling satellite through his 14-inch telescope, posting the footage on his Astrophotography website."

via bbc news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15009337

Or Mr Legault's website:
http://legault.perso.sfr.fr/uars_110915.html

[Danack]

Thanks thats got the theoretical position but doesn't have the current height does it (unless I'm not looking in the right place).

This guy seems to be giving out data points every couple of hours:
http://twitter.com/#!/UARS_Reentry

And he's also got a plot of how the descent is going compared to the predicted models.

http://twitpic.com/6omo24

[Jen]

:thumbsup::thumbsup: cool thanks :thumbsup::thumbsup:

[ballaratdragons]

Wouldn't be much left of Tasmania if it did hit it :rofl:

[glenc]

The latest prediction is 8am Sat AEST give or take 9 hours.
That makes it 11pm Fri to 5pm Sat AEST. Here is the map.
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

[Alchemy]

You beauty it goes right through Victoria, if it comes down early we might get a light show.
Keep the updates coming.

[glenc]

This prediction for Melbourne http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=21701&lat=-37.85751&lng=144.9646&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=AEST
does not seem to agree with the map. (click all)

[glenc]

The latest prediction is 11am on 24/9 AEST (Range is 4am to 6pm AEST)

[traveller]

Power Point from NASA briefing attached

[TinyBlueDot]

If any of it drops on Canberra, hoping it'll put in a nice new skylight on the big building on the hill :D Pity the occupants have gone home for the weekend......

[scagman]

:lol::lol::lol:

[Danack]

I'm pretty sure that that page is assuming the satellite is still in orbit and not changing orbit/velocity.

It seems to be only the page at http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html that is showing the predicted orbits for around the time when it is expected stop orbiting completely.

[tonycynic]

From http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html)
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

So that covers how much of the planet?

[Spanrz]

Can anyone confirm some passes for me. (Melbourne)

There is a direct overhead pass at a peak of 7:44am, from NW to SE
And another at 9:15am very very low about 2-4 degrees in the SW.
(data from Heavens Above TLE and put in to Starry Night)

The initial data that Starry Night uses, tells me the first pass is at 6:44am peaking about 8 degrees
The second pass is peaking at 8:16am SW at 23 degrees.

How do I know which is correct?
I am guessing that the Starry Night is an older update.

[glenc]

See post 37. Looks like 7:42am Saturday for Melbourne

[GeoffW1]

:rofl:

[Shep]

How will they deliver the 2 hour beforehand warnings if it looks like QLD might get some debris? Will it just be a case of too bad if your sleeping and blissfully unaware and a 160kg piece of satellite crashes through your roof and onto you in bed?

[glenc]

They are now saying 1:16pm today AEST give or take 5 hours. (8am to 6pm)

[TinyBlueDot]

Thanks for the updates Glen.
Looks like a day to do a bit of pottering about in the garden....and looking up :thumbsup:
cheers
John

[mishku]

just heading down round tassie now, next pass (will probably fly over us in melbourne) in 80 or so minutes

[sheeny]

Latest update: 11:04am AEST to 17:04pm AEST. Very cloudy here though unfortunately.

Al.

[glenc]

It passes to the west of NZ before the predicted reentry then across the USA and Canada after it.

[stephenb]

+1

Thanks for the updates. Glen. http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/../vbiis/images/smilies/thumbsup.gif

[Spanrz]

I'm hoping for the 3:18-3:24pm pass :D
Yes Glen, great updates!

EDIT: Found TLE data from idb.com.au (via another forum) - references http://www.tle.info/data/TLE.ZIP

[koputai]

The problem with TLE's and sites like heavens-above is that the orbital parameters of a decaying satellite are constantly changing. They should give a very approximate idea, but not only the time changes as the craft slows down, but the longitude of its position as well, as the Earth keeps on spinning underneath the satellite.

Cheers,
Jason.

[Daveskywill]

I've heard that UARS is slowing down it's decent and speed.

So I guess that changed some things. And it will take longer before it

land-falls.

http://www.space.com/13042-nasa-uars-satellite-debris-fall-impact-zone.html

There's the link I found.

David

[AdrianF]

Cloudy here so cant see anything.

Adrian

[mithrandir]

Calsky's latest calculation has it reentering around 15:12 AEST a thousand or so K's south of Perth.

[sheeny]

Yep... agress with this:

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

13:10 to 17:10 AEST is the latest revision.

Al.

[glenc]

On the last predicted orbit it goes over Africa, the southern Indian Ocean and the SE corner of Australia at about 3:20 pm AEST.
It could crash near Sydney or Melbourne.

[mswhin63]

Hope it take an extra orbit and it will be visible from Perth, although not sure if the clouds are going to hamper any viewing though.

[Danack]

For the current prediction if it lands ten minutes later than predicted it would be visible over much of South East Australia except for the huge amounts of cloud.

*shakes tiny fist at clouds*

[Danack]

May be visible over the northern tip of New Zealand in 15-20 minutes.

[mishku]

*joins dan in fist shaking, contemplates some sort of blue sky inducing interpretive dance*

[steve000]

Hi all useful last minute links, some are down..
Re entry map http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
nasa http://www.nasa.gov/rss/uars_update.xml
nasa tv nothing yet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html
n2yo down atm http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701
similar tracker issues http://www.infosatellites.com/uars-satellite-tracking-norad-21701.html
heavens above keep refreshing http://heavens-above.com/
tv of nasa tracking,, live and working !!! http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-092311_nasa-satellite-tracking.html

[icytailmark]

Why dont they just shoot it down?

[steve000]

They could.. or they could just let it land over brisbane.. i know what i prefer *grabs gloves and my heavy sack*

[naskies]

Is the burn up going to be visible against the blue skies? I have my camera outside with a foil sunshades... here's hoping!

[leon]

Is it here yet, :P :lol:

Leon :thumbsup:

[Hans Tucker]

Nope...still up there according to Heavens Above website. NASA better hope that it doesn't land anywhere near Albany WA or they might get issued another littering fine from the Albany council. To NASA credit they did pay the $400 fine for the Skylab littering...albeit 20 years late.

[mickkk]

Its down.

[Hans Tucker]

What is your source for this?...websites have not confirmed that it has re-entered.

[Kevnool]

Because there not chinese

[badabing82]

doesn't look down yet still being tracked

[RobF]

Seems to be bouncing off the atmosphere - up to 4th bounce now supposedly.

[TinyBlueDot]

Because there's enough space junk up in space already....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-02/space-junk-reaching-27tipping-point2c27-report-warns/2868248

the Chinese blew up a sattie in 2007, and all the bits are still up there!!! :confused2:

[icytailmark]

nasa dont clean up after themselves leaving all their junk in space. Whats gunna happen when we start colonising space? We gunna have a rubbish space ship collector?

[capella]

Red Dwarf? :D

[bartman]

Heads up Adelaide, Alice and I guess Cairns-ish.:rain:
Bartman

[glenc]

It will pass from Ceduna to Cairns soon, if it is still up there.
http://heavens-above.com/

[Kevnool]

I,m getting my camera out just in case.
Not clouded in
Lets see what gives
Ill go outside shortly and look NW.

[bartman]

ooo ooo the green circle is just touching Perth now!!!! I'm gunna go out side now!!!!

[Kevnool]

Saw diddly.

Cheers

[badabing82]

at the rate at which it's descending we will prob see it come round again lol!

http://www.infosatellites.com/uars-satellite-tracking-norad-21701.html

[Garyh]

I think she has come down..Live tracking has been lost.
http://www.nasa.gov/rss/uars_update.xml
Would have been good to see!

[glenc]

Seems like it came down near Calgary in Canada. I am not convinced.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-24/nasa-satellite-touches-down/2940778
http://astrobob.areavoices.com/2011/09/24/uars-satellite-finally-meets-its-maker/
video of it? http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread756285/pg

[Dennis]

Thanks for the running commentary Glen - I have been enthralled by the unfolding drama!

Cheers

Dennis

[badabing82]

yeps

Update #14

Sat, 24 Sep 2011 03:16:50 PM GMT+0800

NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The satellite was passing eastward over Canada and Africa as well as vast portions of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans during that period. The precise re-entry time and location are not yet known with certainty.

[glenc]

Seems like no one knows where it landed. Where are all the satellites that watch over us?
Update #15

Sat, 24 Sep 2011 05:46:42 PM EST

NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite penetrated the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. The precise re-entry time and location are not yet known with certainty.

[glenc]

"Locals in Okotoks (http://maps.google.com.au/maps?hl=en&q=Okotoks,+Alberta,+Canada&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl) (approximately 30km south of Calgary) are reporting the discovery of wreckage from the recently downed UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite), including a large piece that left a substantial crater and early estimates (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=201857491333679084808.0004a daa600f4373a8007&msa=0&ll=52.173932,-111.862793&spn=8.263658,19.753418) suggest a debris field extending to the north east of there."
http://www.itwire.com/science-news/space/49989-uars-is-down-in-south-western-canada
also http://lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot.com/2011/09/uars-said-to-have-downed-near-okotoks.html

also http://earthsky.org/space/where-will-nasas-uars-satellite-land
Sounds like it crashed before the predicted time. (5:10 UTC)
"NASA says UARS re-entry took place between 10:23 p.m. CDT September 23 and 12:09 a.m. CDT September 24 (3:23-5:09 UTC September 24). The satellite penetrated the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. NASA is working now to substantiate reports of falling debris."

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/23/uars-update-5-new-predicted-re-entry-tonight-at-0510-utc-2-hrs/
32. Ron1 Says:
September 24th, 2011 at 2:05 am (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/23/uars-update-5-new-predicted-re-entry-tonight-at-0510-utc-2-hrs/#comment-421722) Last NASA update had UARS atmosphere entry over Pacific. BBC carrying unconfirmed report of debris near Okotoks, Alberta Canada.
I’m in Red Deer (160KM north of Okotoks), have clear skies and an unobstructed horizon to the south from an elevated location and, although I’ve been watching for hours, haven’t seen anything other than normal stuff.
How about you people in Calgary, did you see anything?
Cheers

[Spanrz]

I believe the Youtube video to be a fake? Was recorded earlier than the UARS re-entry??

That may correlate what you pulled off the blog Glen.

I was watching the skies here, diddly here :/ Africa must of got quite a show.

[Jen]

It landed on a car LMAO :rofl::rofl::rofl:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgTyiaDmytw

:D

[scagman]

:rofl::rofl:

[glenc]

It landed somewhere in a 1h 46m time period and somewhere in a 70,000 km long zone. What sort of precision is that?
http://www.collectspace.com/news/news-092411b.html
Maybe they don't want to tell us. ;)
I think it is significant that it was not seen to pass over by amateurs in Canada.

[Spanrz]

Glen,
I find it weird that they note a time of 1h:46m, when the satellite had an initial orbit of 88 minutes.
Granted that the orbit speed would have slowed down a bit due to friction, blah blah, but that means that if it turned out to be 1h:46 min, that says only 1 station was tracking it??
So NASA says watch out with an uncontrolled satellite with only 1 station tracking it? LOL :screwy:



LOL, I think this too....Is NASA playing with us? ;)


No reports from ships / planes in the area??

[glenc]

NASA this week released more detailed information about where a huge, defunct satellite landed when it crashed to Earth early Saturday morning, but the space agency has still not recovered any remnants.
The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) re-entered the Earth's atmosphere (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2393527,00.asp) at 12am Eastern time (2pm AEST) on Saturday morning at 14.1 degrees south latitude and 189.8 degrees east longitude. (is this 170.2 W near Pago Pago)

NASA published a map of the satellite's journey (below); the green circle on the left of the map is likely where the satellite's remains landed.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2393681,00.asp#fbid=h3xP2Cfd 7Xi (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2393681,00.asp#fbid=h3xP2Cfd 7Xi)
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/09/nasa-uars-down-in-south-pacific/1?csp=34news