NBN Myths Busted

[avandonk]

Interesting video explaining the facts of the NBN.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a2ne1WKxek


Bert

[richardda1st]

Thanks for posting this Bert, very interesting :thumbsup: but as most commentators don't care about the facts, most of the population will never be aware.

Cheers
Richard

[mswhin63]

The one thing I found lacking is a bit more specific allocation of resources. ie: are they going to upgrade dial-up first before ADSL2+ or are they going to leave difficult locations till it is forgotten about.

The presentation was more suited to engineering audience though. Interesting that it talks about new technology in modulation. I have worked with 16QAM and 16OQPSK NRZ microwave link system almost 20 years ago and the next systems to be brought in before I left were higher than that. This presentation suggests the technology is only in it infancy.

[gary]

Hi Bert,

Thanks for posting the link to the Macquarie University Engineering Week lecture
for 2011 by Peter Ferris, planner for the network. I watched this on Monday.

Since the target audience was predominantly engineers, Ferris makes the occasional
reference to some aspects of communications engineering that I suspect might
not be transparent to some who have not formally studied it.

For example, he makes reference to the "Shannon Limit" at time 24:23.
Since the Shannon limit is only presented to electrical engineering undergraduates
in the third year of their studies when they are doing their second year of a
communications theory course, I suspect most people will be unaware of what it is.

Yet knowledge of the Shannon Limit combined with the graph Ferris presents
at 19:27 showing the exponential growth of bandwidth demand is crucial to
appreciating why the methods of data delivery that have been chosen for the NBN
are the right ones.

The Shannon limit is named after a personal hero of mine who is the Father of
Information Theory, the late Claude Shannon.

Earlier this year, on the anniversary of what would have been his 95th birthday
if he had still been alive, I posted this tribute to him -
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?t=74961

In that post, I make mention of the Shannon Limit in these paragraphs -



More formally, Shannon showed in what is known as the Shannon-Hartley theorem
that -

C = B * log2 (1 + S/N)

where -
C is the channel capacity in bits per second
B is the bandwidth of the channel in Hertz
S/N is the signal to noise ratio

As Ferris makes clear, the NBN architecture consists of next generation wireless,
satellite and optical fiber delivery. What technology will be used will depend upon
where you live.

However, since the bandwidth of optical fibers is thousands of times broader than the
finite amount of radio bandwidth that exists in nature, fiber is capable of delivering
more bits per second that radio ever can, because the fundamental Shannon
Limit at wireless wavelengths is much lower than that at optical wavelengths.

And the graph (19:27) where Ferris shows the exponential increase in bandwidth
required by households over the last three decades shows that optical
fiber directly to the house is the only technology that is future proof enough
to meet the typical data delivery requirements our society will have in the coming years.

In other words, despite the seemingly miraculous increases in wireless data delivery
engineers have been creating in recent years, we are starting to get within
a few percent of the Shannon Limit. In the years ahead, there will be further
advances in wireless speeds but there is not a lot of head room left and when one
looks at the projected data bandwidth requirements for households in the coming
decades, unfortunately a universal wireless system cannot meet those
requirements. It is also important to remember that what wireless bandwidth
is a limited resource and the future will demand that every spare Hertz of it
should be best allocated for those applications for which wireless is best suited - namely
mobile applications.

As Ferris mentions at 20:50, projections show that video data requirements will
increase enormously as well. Though many of us enjoy HD video today, already
4K (4196 x 2160 pixels) consumer products are about to merge to be followed by
8K (8392x4320 pixels) in the years ahead. One of Ferris's graphics (20:51) describes
8K as cinematographic experience where a 1 hour streaming download will require
anywhere between 13 to 135GB per hour and first consumer offerings are expected
around 2013.

The NBN of course will also replace the entire existing switch telephone network
and all voice traffic will become digital.

It would not surprise me if current terrestrial wireless free to air television
delivery were to switch to NBN optical fiber delivery in the future, thus
freeing up more of the precious wireless spectrum that might then be auctioned
off for large amounts of money to wireless telephone and data carriers.

For very interested readers who would like to learn more about the theory
and practice of digital communications, including concepts such as
data compression, the Shannon Limit, the Nyquist criteria, PAM and QAM
modulation, small signal constellations, Viterbi encoding and so on, MIT
as part of their OpenCourseWare program have the following two undergraduate
electrical engineering courses available online which include video lectures -

6.450 Principles of Digital Communications I
Videos -
http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-computer-science/6-450-principles-of-digital-communications-i-fall-2006/video-lectures/
Lecture notes and other resources -
http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-computer-science/6-450-principles-of-digital-communications-i-fall-2006/

6.451 Principles of Digital Communication II
Videos -
http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-computer-science/6-451-principles-of-digital-communication-ii-spring-2005/lecture-notes/
Lecture notes and other resources -
http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-computer-science/6-451-principles-of-digital-communication-ii-spring-2005/

Thanks again to Bert for posting the link to the Macquarie University lecture.

[Terry B]

I haven't watched the link yet but I do know that the NBN goes past my work but I still can't connect to it as the providers are yet to stop bickering and actually offer a contract. :shrug:

[gary]

Hi Malcolm,

Announcements were made for the first and second release sites here -
http://www.nbn.gov.au/follow-the-rollout/australian-mainland-rollout/
and they have said they finalizing a detailed rollout for all locations in Australia.

It is important to keep in mind that the NBN is not simply an Internet delivery
network. When many people hear the word "broadband" they relate it to mean
a fast Internet connection. However, is also replacing the entire switched
telephone network infrastructure. The network terminating device that will
be installed on your house will still have a phone socket outlet so that you
will still be able to plug in your existing phone handsets and dial a number like
you do today, but the old switched network structure will be ripped out and
gone forever. With this in mind, there will be limited incentive to have islands
of old switched telephone exchanges as it will be more difficult to maintain.

Though there has been some prioritizing for getting the NBN to some areas first,
when you consider the scope and dimension of the project where they plan
on bringing fiber to something like 6000 house per day over the next decade,
the logistics won't simply pan out to upgrade those areas with dial up
Internet connections first, but instead, as the NBN web site itself puts it
succinctly, "For a project of this size and complexity, it is important to get the planning
and design phases right to ensure that the rollout occurs as efficiently as possible".
When one considers the enormous distances involved, spanning optical
fibers across the country between every town and city and the fact that it is
changing the entire communications backbone of the continent, not simply
providing an alternative to ADSL or ADSL2, then it becomes easier to appreciate
the deployment probably borrows more from the logistics of an enormous
military campaign rather than just casual, piecemeal deployment.



Not quite ... I think you will find that Ferris, who is well versed in the engineering,
in this context is primarily alluding to the use of methods such as QAM at optical
wavelengths on fiber. So he is not saying QAM is in its infancy, instead, as he says
at 28:44 "so as the radio guys have been investing in technology and going through and
working through an analogue medium to gain the most they possibly can out of the radio
spectrum, the optics guys have looked at that and said 'hey, hang on. That looks
pretty good. We might try a bit of that OFDM. What about this QAM? We could try
a bit of analogue across that.'" In other words, whereas techniques such as QAM
have been around a long time in radio, only in recent years have researchers started
to apply them optically, which requires a different bag of tricks.

[mswhin63]

Thanks Gary, went through from 28:44, very easily missed the beginning regarding us radio guys.

Hopefully after my studies I won't be just a radio guy any more. I have decided to do a double degree. : BE in Electronic and Communications and BSc Astronomy and Astrophysics. Stickler for punishment.

[Peter Ward]

Peter clearly knows his stuff. The Physics of Bandwidth is undeniable.

NBN business case is a 7% return. Demand will increase.

But.. At the currently best, or even better future 3D HD res, the decision is to deliver "video" content, in full 1920p, to all who want to view, is IMH nonsense. (to paraphrase...kids, do your homework, then watch "Bugs Bunny" )

I have no doubt Peter and his Engineers can deliver this freeway that can send spectacular content to the entire Australian populace times 8..... but..sorry... WTF??? Aren't there are more pressing problems???

National engineering efforts I'd really like to see:

1) High speed rail on the eastern seaboard (Oz is a generation behind Germany, France...well Europe...and China )
2) Clean power generation (Themal Solar or Thorium...don't care..)
3) Irrigate Australia (sorry, climate change IMHO is real)
4) please fee free to add to the list

[richardda1st]

My sky has just clouded over :sadeyes:, so back inside and back here again.

I could be wrong but this thread seems to be about the technical merits of the NBN and debunking the myths by using technical facts. I think Peter Ferris pointed this out at the start of his presentation.

Cheers
Richard

[mswhin63]

Richard good point, Each government initiative is separate from others so best to create a thread detailing other concern.
Communications is the a requirement for all Australians. I received my experience in Radio data communication in Westrail who used the NBN techniques to provide communication for signalling for trains. So Peter please be aware that without the vast communication infrastructure your first preference is mute, same with the second one. (Not so much the third one)

[Peter Ward]

Clearly all, systems in a modern society have pressures on them to be upgraded, but I doubt you need optical fibre to run a train.

Agreed, this is not the thread to soapbox on other priorities. My concern is simply that having a compulsory high speed data link to my home doesn't leave me feeling all warm and fuzzy when I'm sitting in grid-lock or being slugged with onerous utility bills.

[CraigS]

There are many variables which go into the selection of technologies and architectures, by geographic zone. The economic issues cannot be divorced from the technologies, nor can they be divorced from the density of demand for service types.

Ferris makes the point in the beginning that NBN Co are building infrastructure to deliver transport for these application demands however, one clearly cannot divorce the functions of the delivery architecture, from the applications themselves. For example: the bandwidth of particular technology types, facilitates delivery speeds necessary to make those applications viable …. and businesses require higher availability/reliability than others, and also need to be be able to forward business critical information as a priority over less important traffic. All of these functions becomes part of the definition of "service" and thus must be catered for in Ferris' network architecture. Make no mistakes about it, the service delivery capabilities of the NBN network, will be critical to the delivery of applications by 'other' providers.

The business decisions made by NBN Co (internally), will impact everyone's expectations, and the efficiency of the organisation itself begins with how people like Ferris view the needs of their customers … and their shareholders.

I see presentations like this, which focus on pure technology options, as leaning towards being a smokescreen, intended to divert attention away from the fundamental decisions on economic and demographic priorities, being made inside NBN Co. These will ultimately, and primarily, determine the success or failure of this venture over any external governmental influences.

Cheers

[supernova1965]

For one the NBN isn't compulsory though why you would not use it when it can get you out of the grid-lock and allow you to work remotely from home saving on onerous petrol bills or traveling on the train for that matter. The cost of fibre connection is comparable with the old costs of broadband. As stated you don't need to change to the higher speed unless you want to it isn't being forced on us and seeing as it won't cost more than what we pay now I can't understand why it is such a problem for anyone to accept.

[Omaroo]

I guess that at $43bn, it's already cost every man woman and child in this country $2,260 (at today's guestimate) to merely install. That's before we get to pay for its usage. It ain't going in for free Warren, and it is being forced on us as we're all paying for it even if we individually aren't going to use it.

[supernova1965]

I reckon for what it will deliver I for one am happy with $2,260 for the giant leap foward in communication infrastructure we should have had this for atleast 20 years in my opinion it is well overdue. And waiting for the private sector to do it didn't work so I applaud the government for doing it.

[Omaroo]

I'm glad you're happy, so you can pay for my share too Warren.

Getting away from the central post here. Sorry Bert.

Being in the comms business in one form or another for the past 30+ years, I find that its slightly comforting knowing that the billions spent (or misspent if you prefer) might deliver something that has a chance of at least working on a technical level.

[supernova1965]

In Mackay our public transport is virtually non existant and my taxes pay for the infrastructure for it in all area's of Australia and I have no problem with that as it is my country and when I travel I get use of it. The amount of benifit that will come from the NBN isn't just limited to internet connection it will revolutionise medical care for all allowing access to specialists from all over the world.

[Omaroo]

I'm not going to get into an argument with you Warren.

[avandonk]

That is fine with me omaroo We could also consider the four billion spent on private health insurance by taxpayer subsidy every year and growing. Not to mention the twelve billion in lost revenue to support negative gearing. The six billion gifted to the wealthiest schools should also come under scrutiny.

The government investment is about 28 billion in the NBN over ten years. It will be amortised by cost recovery.

Bert

[Omaroo]

As is the case with all of this Bert - there are arguments to support and deny all major points of publicly-funded expenditure - and there are many. We could also stop giving so damned much to Indonesia.

I'm actually reasonably happy with the notion of the NBN itself - if it's implemented correctly and has a solid and purposeful takeup (which is by no means guaranteed) then I'm probably even half good with it. What I'm not happy with is the "management" team at the top who are currently in charge of splashing these funds around with, apparently, little actual managerial or legal skill. Today there is talk within the ranks of replacing our "Managing Director" once again - over the latest of a long string of incredibly expensive bungles. Billions are the "new millions". Doesn't sit well with me I'll say. It's lots and lots of our money at risk so how about waiting until someone with the capacity to manage the implementation correctly comes along first. I'm understandably nervous as I firmly believe that the current crew simply aren't capable of seeing it through - as has been proven so many times now. If this is denied by anyone they are delusional.

Once again Bert - I apologise for contributing to the divergence of your original discussion.

[Peter Ward]

Going through the propaganda on NBN's website I spotted this gem.. the NBN will help deliver health services...including...wait for it... "E-triage!"

Are these clowns for real? I can see it now: "Forget the Flying Doc Blue! Get the i-pad !! "

One would think more front line health professionals actually at the scene might be a little more useful for trauma medicine
than an optical fibre...

Reminds me of the old Peter Sellers song.. "Doctor I'm in touble"
"Well goodness gracious me" (with Indian accent) :)

[CraigS]

That the technology planning presentation was devoid of business case parameters is of great significance, also.

I think this speaks volumes about the depth of awareness about the primary concerns of the audience (be they tecchies ... or not).

What real myths were actually busted ?

Cheers

[tlgerdes]

The technicalities for the NBN are definately there, it can deliver what it is said to.

That being said, inside 5 years, only 20% of the devices accessing the Internet will be a PC. So all that extra ummph that the NBN will deliver, will be for the joyous benefit of the few who live in the past. Mobile devices will be the consumers of Internet services in the future.

All that extra bandwidth, I know Foxtel would love to have it. Great way for Mr Murdoch to get into your home without him having to fund it. But I am being cynical.

[renormalised]

This NBN is a prime example of the failings of our present system of doing things. Look at how much this is being slated to cost. Then watch how much it will actually cost to implement, if and when they get the ball rolling. If they ever get a coherent system up and running...this will not be without the inevitable delays and squabbles over who's getting what and how to implement the system (as technology changes). Instead of trying to build these sort of projects in a monetary based economic system and finding out you can't do them properly, if at all, the best system under which to implement these sort of projects is a resource based economic system. Knowing what resources you have, you then decide whether it's feasible or not to go ahead with a particular project. Something like the NBN should be rolled out as a matter of consequence for the benefit of all....not to the benefit of whoever pays for it and runs it (under the present system). It should also be rolled out and managed by those people who actually know what they're doing and talking about, not by some idiot who has a political science/economics/law/commerce/business/accounting degree who thinks that just because a few thousand people voted for him/her that they're somehow expert on anything they happen to be given to run. It's like giving Attila the Hun the launch codes for every nuke in the US arsenal and expecting him to be mature enough not to use them. Bad enough they're in the hands they're in. Leaving the implementation of the NBN up to politicians is a guarantee of seeing it either fail completely or watching some hodge podge system come into service that won't work properly to begin with. If it does, it'll be a miracle.

[bojan]

You have to be aware that "mobile" is not really mobile.
It relies on a number of wireless cells, that need to be connected with high-speed links with hubs and servers... Because the transmitters on your mobile devices can't have higher-than-something power output. So fibre infrastructure is essential for those services, and it will be used by those who live in the future as well.

[supernova1965]

Most of those mobile devices can connect to hotspots throughout cities at places like McDonalds for one example and they will be connected to the Fibre Optic network the stories going around about new wireless tech being the big new thing it can't come close to what fibre can deliver
and they all join up to the fibre at some point anyway.

And satelite and mobile service is dependant on the weather being good ie no cloud with satelite and line of sight for mobile tech.

[mishku]

Hi Peter, in my professional life, I work in the community health field. With the advent of digitised medical records (and honestly, with the complexity of our health care system), so much more of our work is done electronically, in the acute, subacute, community and allied health areas. On any given day, I make countless referrals to other specialist services, and without a bit of high-tech assistance, the process would be much longer. Indeed, the way we decide who can access our service is from a centralised waitlist, and you guessed it... we triage our referrals electronically.

Given the ratio of service availability to service requirements, for many areas, triage for services is a reality. I would hazard a guess that in order to access most aged care, community care services, disability or mental health services, you (whether you realise it or not) are sent through a triage or priority of access process. You're most certainly guaranteed to go through triage in order to access public acute or outpatient services. Let's face it, the old adage of an ounce of prevention and a pound of cure rings true, especially in the world of health - and that means accessing preventative health care through services that are part of the wider community and not just based in the hospital. Given population growth and rationalisation of service delivery, it's unlikely that the need for triage will be any less, and so improving process efficiency is pretty important. If the NBN provides any advantage in the speed with which we can share critical patient information with medical or support staff, I'm all for it.

M

[tlgerdes]

Sorry guys, I am fully aware of the technicalities of what you are saying:screwy:. What you are missing, is that what people want is not being listened to, and you are getting what you have been told you can have.

Simple question, my 10yr old son jumps into the car with his laptop, and asks why cant it connect to the Internet? We were discussing this over dinner with the CTO of HP Enterprises Services on Tuesday evening. It is not a techincal question but more philisophical question, about what the next generation of users are going to expect.

[Peter Ward]

Are you saying you'd email someone because a patient:

is likely to live, regardless of what care they receive
likely to die, regardless of what care they receive
or immediate care might make a positive difference in outcome ???

I suspect we are not talking about the same class of triage... :)

[mishku]

Nah, Peter, as I said, I work in community health... which is no less a critical health service, I'd argue! :) We are talking about different sorts of triage, I think you're thinking of acute. What I'm trying to say (and what the NBN page doesn't seem to get into) is that for many (most?) health services that arent based in an acute health service (ie, a hospital), triage is a reality. That's millions of Aussies every year, and millions and millions of health care records floating around. The IT infrastructure underpinning healthcare is actually pretty incredible. Now if I break a leg and my ambo cracks out an ipad to email the hospital, there'll be a woooorld of trouble :)

[bojan]

Well... we are living in market economy, so what else do you expect from your kids? They are just product of the consumer society and it's forces.
Demand and supply (or vice versa).

[mswhin63]

Out on a job an couldn't respond.

Peter I believe you suffer the same symptoms that I occasionally do that is respond without reading. Train are run by drivers, signalling is other features usually on the track. When I left the railway they were implementing fibre anyway, the link not only provide fast data they also provide consistent data communications.
The links we established not only supplied the train traffic lights but also other things including telephone systems, telemetry system to locate faults and send back specific details of the faults etc, because the copper network was failing even at that time.

Utilities are state government and if you live in the east then it is also private.

[tlgerdes]

And that is my philisophical problem with the NBN, we are moving from a market economy where companies are trying to provide a competitive edge and move where the demand is, to McDonalds where all you get are Big Macs and Fries, one size fits all.

I see them sending $43,000,000,000 on what yesterday needed, not what tomorrow needs.

[bojan]

I think tomorrow will need even more than that.. the growth in comms is more than exponential.
20 years ago everybody thought telephone will be quite enough for all times to come.

[Peter Ward]

I could see many ways to skin this cat, but, sorry, a public optical fibre network wasn't one of them.

Are you serious? Any concerns about: security, integrity of service, proprietary hardware and software all plugged into a public or 3rd party network?

Also made me wonder how steam trains ever got around :)

ATC did something similar years ago. As an end user of their (centralised) system I have to say I find their level of service as wanting.

Outside controlled airspace I much prefered the "quaint" Radio (and copper ) Flight Service units...with human operators... that often gave invaluable briefings of local traffic + weather information that the automatic/remote system are now oblivious to.

[PeterM]

To be able to download porn quicker, play games much faster, gamble on call and use facebook quicker I reckon $34 billion will be seen as a great investment by the majority, being able to use it for other productivity, well I guess that will catch on........
PeterM

[KenGee]

Speaking like a typical City people, tune the radio to Alan Jones and who cares about the rest of the country.

Peter for many us country people who are often 2 or 3 hours away from a doctor the NBN will help. If you have ever had to get first aid advice over the radio or phone, being able to show whats going on is great.

If you've ever traveled 4 or 5 hours to see a doctor for 5 mintues, a webcam visit would be great.

Just about ever Lib and Nats polly that knows how to log onto a computer thinks it's a great idea. It's only their governement at all cost stance that stops them saying it.

[Peter Ward]

My local Doc is flat out seeing patients as it is & have a sneaking suspicion putting a webcam in his office would not allow him to make more hours in the day to see even more patients.... more front-line medico's I suggest is what is really needed.

I'd also be interested in hearing from any GP's on how clinical presentation of a patient, who is not in the clinic could actually work. eg: poke youself here? does it hurt?

[supernova1965]

While not being a GP I have been told that the GP makes a Video appointment with a specialist and the specialist talks the GP through the diagnostic steps.

[Peter Ward]

With Professional to Professional, wouldn't simply picking up a telephone achieve the same end?

Getting back to the patient...I can see much being missed via a webcam. I am not the only one. The is quite a deal written about this on the web already by medico's themselves.

The gist seems to be it puts extra responsibility on the doctor and there is a risk of errors of misdiagnosis (I can see the lawyers having a field-day with this), extensive examinations are not possible.....

Sure high speed data transmission can help with back office functions, but
the rest looks like spin to me.

[mishku]

This technology comes into it's own in chronic disease management. A ludicrous proportion of folks now have chronic disease(s) that require seriously costly investigations. Many (most?) conditions require more sophisticated analysis than a simple "where does it hurt", and take a multidisciplinary team to manage or treat.

If you consider the sheer amount of data that comes back from the path lab with a single full blood panel, it would be seriously inefficient to share that information over the phone, professional to professional. Consider a chronic cardiac condition, where your GP needs to monitor biomarkers in the blood, as well as regularly view a series of medical images. Something like images from cardiac catheterisation get to be a decent size if they're real-time images, and you can't simply explain, professional to professional "that there's a smudgy bit there near the ventricular wall". My GP now uses digital xray technology, which means that he can see me, send me round to radiology, and then have me back almost instantly to interpret the results of my xray.

There are several key advantages here - firstly, speed of information sharing. Secondly, as the health professional (GP, specialist, allied health) contributes to the digital medical record, it allows for a more comprehensive patient history. Imagine the possibilities of being able to refer a patient from your general practise to a dermatologist, not only with a letter, but a series of images that track the changes of the patient's skin over time? Thirdly, imagine if you're in a rural location, if they can get some portable imaging equipment and run a regular clinic near you (or using the specialty equipment already located closer to home) - the speed and efficacy of information sharing between practitioners will be vastly improved. You might not need to be seeing your city based specialist quite so often if your GP can review and consult with the specialist based on the more detailed information they can now more easily share.

M

[Peter Ward]

Well, I was being a bit glib...:)...and you have raised valid points...

I still doubt you'd need a NBN to simply email or VPN the few megabytes of data you mention..and as you describe... is residing on a LAN rather than WAN system.

Sure back office functions can be improved. Yet I remain unconvinced clinical consultations with patients would be viable for anything other than
complaints requiring the proverbial "take two asprin and call me in the morning"

[mishku]

Hahaha then I argue it's probably good you're not a clinician :)

[Ray?]

My understanding is that the copper lines will be killed off and the only option will be the NBN. Also, if you don't choose to have it installed when it comes around, when the copper option goes, you'll be up for a heafty installation bill. That to me reads as compulsory.

I think working remotely is the biggest furphy ever put forward. We've had the opportunity to work remotely for years, but it's simply not in the culture of the majority of organisations to accept (someone working from home is clearly slacking off etc). For some it isn't even practical, as the work involves direct interraction with numerous people (shops, services etc), where digital face time just doesn't work.

As for costs, there is much debate about that at the moment and to recover the enormous cost and cover profit, someone has to pay.

Cheers

Ray

[supernova1965]

But it wont cost anything initially except the money paid by the government you will be able to go on as usual telstra and the other phone companies have agreed to transfer their customers to the fibre optic network so everything will go on as it is now the only difference is that your phone and internet will go over fibre instead of copper. I really don't understand everyone's problem this is just changing from copper to fibre bringing our telecomunications network into line with most other countries in the world. Taking Telstra's monopoly on the network away which is a good thing in my thinking

[Peter Ward]

Won't cost anything?? You have to be kidding. :lol:

Every fortnight the government takes a good slab of my wages and gives it to people & projects I don't care about or want implemented.

It's called taxation and costs me... and quite a few others..dearly.

[mswhin63]

The video states a 7% return, so the long term benefits are that it won't cost us much. It is not in the best interests in business because 7% is not enough but this is wholesale eventually it will be paid back.

[Peter Ward]

7% on tens of billions of $ is actually pretty good ( 2x to 3x the cash rate in many economies).

I'd suggest business would be laying fibre already if there was a viable case.

Many $A billions of my and other taxpayer money is being thrown at this "political thought bubble" with fingers crossed it will make money...and who cares if it doesn't....there are plenty more taxpayer dollars out there to bail it out if it doesn't.

[supernova1965]

The problem with the market taking care of it is too many people would miss out as the market wont service costly locations leaving many people in the blackspots.

[Peter Ward]

Ah..it exists already. Telstra has a Universal Service Obligation.

The NBN business model is only viable as it requires the copper network to be be tossed in the bin via a no competition clause.

[supernova1965]

This obligation only covers existing infrastructure and does not cover any future technology that Telstra would have installed. And I think many people in the middle of nowhere would argue that the Universal Service Obligation isn't worth the paper it is written on.

I think more open minded debate is required sadly I believe that political ideology is at the hub of this debate. The copper network is obsolete it costs more per year to keep it operational than it is worth it is failing.

[Peter Ward]

So we have existing legislation that is being ignored? What's to say NBN Co. ...or who ever buys it out....Won't ignore similar legislation?

Sure high speed data is nice, but at the risk of being repetitive, life can go on quite well without it.

[tlgerdes]

Who likes the idea of Peter Ward working remotely? :lol:

[tlgerdes]

This is where the problems start to arise. The legislation that has been put in place means that any new technology can only be implemented by NBN, it is their Non Compete clause. "I" cannot roll out some newer fancier technology that delivers twice the performance at half the price than NBN anytime in the future, it has to come through NBN.

[supernova1965]

There is no newer fancier tech that delivers better performance than fibre optics.

[mswhin63]

That is true if it needs to be part of the NBN, but if your new technology has all the commercial market issues dealt with it then it can be considered. It would not be advisable to place a mish mash of technologies otherwise it would get out of control.

Apart from Copper, Fibre and Radio, I can't think of any new medium to run data through so even if a new technology is available it will need the checks and balances in place ready for commercial operation before implemented by the NBN. This is mentioned during question time at the end of the video based on CSIRO development of a new technology of greater speed.

[Ray?]

And so they have said of many a technology and been proven very, very, wrong.:eyepop:

Cheers

Ray

[astroron]

Maybe Warren should have said at this moment ;)
Cheers :thumbsup:

[supernova1965]

Thanks Ron that is exactly what I meant I don't believe that anything yet is even on the horizon

[bojan]

Very much true.

With only 1dB loss per 10km, it can't be matched with anything else.

[Ray?]

The visible horizon has always been about 25km away; however, it's amazing how easy it has been to go beyond the visible and metaphorical horizon throughout history. ;)

Cheers

Ray

[supernova1965]

Ah but too the prespective of the person moving towards the horizon it is impossible to cross the horizon it is only someone watching the traveler that see's them cross it. So it is literally impossible to cross our own horizon.:P That should do a few heads in if they try to understand that:rofl:

[Peter Ward]

Actually, no, when I'm at work it's about 200 nautical miles. ;)

Don't get me wrong. Modulating optical frequencies to carry data has massive bandwidth potential, and could deliver the contents of the entire National library to your PC in scant seconds.

But what are *you* i.e your average Joe, ( or Joanne ) going to do with it?

Put your hand up for remote brain surgery?

As the great L. Toons luminary and B. Bunny side-kick once said: "not this little black duck"

P.S.
(big hint to the horizon problem...the distance depends on your altitude :) )

[strongmanmike]

I like the little political comments that have crept in here and there :lol:

A National Broadband Network is visionary stuff (so simply not in the conservative psychi :rolleyes:)...given time and a chance it has the potential to be revolutionary :thumbsup:

Mike

[Ray?]

How can it be visionary? The technology has been around for decades and is but one option over many. There are options already providing what the NBN is supposed to deliver (and often barely used).

Existing technology, simply expanded, isn't revolutionary. The motor car was revolutionary over the horse and cart, and led to a whole new way of life and industry (same for the industrial revolution).

Cable broadband is hardly likely to equate to that (unless you consider faster download of porn, movies and music revolutionary).:confused2:

Cheers

Ray

[Peter Ward]

Ditto Rays comments. I get 20Mb per sec via Coax at present.

Subscribing to a slower data rate via NBN optical fibre will actually cost existing cable users more.

Hardly visionary.

[supernova1965]

Ray if you are going to talk about tech with the speed and reliability of fibre optic you need to name it.

There is no current way that you can get 100 MBPS anywhere in Australia and with fibre it only needs the ends above any flood level and it will keep operating under water that can't be done with copper.

If you can come up with tech that is as durable and provides the speed of Fibre to the predicted 98% of Australians you may even convince me I am wrong but you have failed to do that the only thing that comes close is Cable which you need a different type of router and live in the largest cities in Australia I may be wrong but I believe cable only services Sydney and Melbourne.

[supernova1965]

I am pleased for you most Australian's can't get that and it doesn't beat 100MBPS. The top speed available up here is 8 MBPS at present and that costs around $200 per month

[Peter Ward]

Rural Australia gets a pretty bad serve in many respects, of which ISP's are part of a long list.

Is 100MBs going to build a regional hospital, provide clean cheap energy, irrigate the land, give you better roads, air-services or high speed rail to the big smoke?

I suspect for many 100MBps will simply replicate what CD-ROM's did last century.

They had so much storage compared to other data mediums, a whole new form of software came out....they called it "shovel-ware".... as it was literally meagbytes of useless...well...stuff you'd normally shovel.

[bojan]

I would also very much like to know what exactly are those options.

[avandonk]

The whole point of the original post was to give the layman a real view of why and what the NBN is.

Myths debunked

Copper does not come close
FTTN will need more HFC or wireless connections and will cost more than FTTH or FTTP
HFC is not a solution as it is already overloaded as it cannot cope with peak loads
Wireless will never beat optical fibre.

It is sad that it has reduced to an argument between uninformed people pushing their own uninformed barrows of ignorance.

I have 30Mbits/1.2Mbits at the moment in the middle of the night! I have Telstra HFC with 200GB limit. At peak times this can slow down to about 5Mbits/sec. So I could not care less for the rest of you.

Anecdotal evidence is just that anecdotal.

Stick to flying 747's Peter as a communications expert you are not very good.

Bert

[Peter Ward]

Agreed, this is wandering at multiple tangents to your original post Bert.

The NBN will indeed have massive capacity and robustness. I simply have serious doubts about the bulk of end user benefits.

BTW the avionics in the (non-Boeing) aircraft I've been on for a number of years now are highly networked.....full duplex routers etc.

But can't send out for pizza... yet :)

[avandonk]

Peter have you ever met my brother Ben he is a check captain with Qantas.

He is just as sure of himself as you are. I suppose it goes with the territory you both inhabit.

Bert

[Peter Ward]

Haven't had the pleasure. Yes, you are probably right. :lol:

[avandonk]

Peter as a mere passenger on a large jet I hope that the captain is as smart as he thinks he is at flying at least!
My brother always says 'correct' rather than right to not cause confusion in the cockpit. This affectation sounds strange in normal conversation on the ground.
Bert

[Peter Ward]

Flying? What's that?

It's more like managing...in IT parlance..."mission critical" systems these days :)

[avandonk]

Yes my brother told me about a flight crew who looked at each other muttering 'what is it doing now?' This was in a simulator.

Bert

[supernova1965]

No people have mentioned that telephones are going to be over the NBN and this will ensure better comunication during natural disasters.

[Peter Ward]

Depends.

Has your handset melted?
Cabling..above or below ground?
Was the seismic-rift big enough to snap glass, but not big enough to overly extrude copper?
Is your house under-water or just the optical fibre leading to it?

Sorry...a long bow at best :)

[Ray?]

Let me quote you some statements made by engineers in the 90s when the Internet rubber started to hit the road: '14Kbs is the max that you'll ever get from copper wire', later: 'you'll never be able to exceed 36Kbs'. No one could conceive the speeds that one could get through copper wire in that decade, yet we have ADSL2+ speeds (for some) coming through copper wire, something no one would have believed in the 90s. Cable is not necessarily the ultimate solution.

You're now introducing other aspects into the debate, which have nothing to do with the technology itself, but more with redundancy that can be implemented into any technology. Copper wire, for example, works fine under water and has done so for nearly a century. That's what formed the basis of the first submarine comminication cables across the Atlantic and Pacific.

Even the NBN will not reach the majority of the rural population and will be supplemented with alternative technologies. Read the NBN charter and you'll see that it will depend on a number of alternatives because it will be exceedingly expensive to take fibre optic to every doorstep in Australia.

Telstra is also not restricted in providing alternative technology, the only thing that it has agreed to do is not promote such technology over the NBN. That says something in itself.

Cheers

Ray

[Ray?]

Every time that power has failed in my area, I've pulled out the old PSTN phone and had communication, as the copper wire doesn't depend on mains power like our wireless phones and skype via computer. That's what I call redundancy.

Cheers

Ray

[supernova1965]

Our house has had water in it twice in the last 3 years and we lost telecomunications both times for weeks at a time and telstra refuse to fix it properly because the copper wires need to be completely replaced almost right back to the node and they refuse to fix it properly.

So I think until you understand what natural disasters others have suffered I think that you should not be so quick to ridicule what I have said. And if there had been fibre we would not have lost communications.

[Ray?]

That last bit is a big call. The potential for failure always lies at the connection points, not between.

Cheers

Ray

[Peter Ward]

No ridicule intended.

But your supposition is incorrect. Disasters are almost always chaotic and affect complex systems in unexpected ways.

Copper is just as safe undergound as glass fibre.

Above ground, sorry, you may be thinking optical fibre and its supporting infrastructure is far more robust than that which supports plain old wires.

Even optically modulated systems need electricity. Without it, "computer (probably the cheapest ones in the tender) says no" :)

[strongmanmike]

A reputable poll out today had only 10% or so of those polled trusting Alan Jones and not much more for Andew Bolt... so maybe there is still hope..? :lol:

[Omaroo]

Not sure why being deeply concerned about such massive expenditure, irrespective of the merits of the technology, should be labelled by your type as "pushing a barrow"? I guess it is, and most sensible people are always happier to put up a challenge to what could very well be recognised as reckless spending by incapable management. This doesn't seem to be a priority to the incumbent team. We apologise for putting our fiscal health before our desire to make a mark.

[AndrewJ]

Yep,
but when the connection to your house
is a cheap crimp in a pit in the roadside,
( vs a fully insulated, hi tech underwater proof jobby )
and rain fills the pit,
the line becomes decidedly iffy, and sometimes, stops :shrug:

Andrew

[Deeno]

More importantly, the Prime Minister is enjoying 23%. Lets prey this insanity will end soon. :prey:

[strongmanmike]

"Your type" huh..? niiice..so what "type" are you referring too exactly :question:?

[mswhin63]

Not to mention all the copper sheath loving insects.

[multiweb]

Boulder rolling astro-photographer extraordinaire. ;)

[strongmanmike]

...visionary! :thumbsup::lol:

[Omaroo]

Would you prefer "of your persuasion"? It's yours.

[Ray?]

The reality is that the copper wire communications system has proven to be very robust over the last century. It's very simplicity makes it robust and easy to restore when failure does occur. More often than not, when we have problems lately, it's because of all the additional new stuff that's piggy-backed onto the copper system.

I'm not against high speed broadband and fbre optic, I'm just against the NBN because it has not been scrutinised openly to validate it's cost effectiveness. Most of the sales pitch supporting it's development is just hype. It's also tossing away a perfectly good communications system simply to force people onto the NBN.

Cheers

Ray

[The_bluester]

I do not have time currently to look through the rest of the thread to see if someone else answered this statement. Do you realise that the USO essentially means that Telstra has an obligation to provide you with access to a working voice phone? Everything beyond that including internet access, fax, basically anything beyond the brief of a POTS service is "Best effort" which for a whole lot of people translates to "Sorry, can't be done"


As someone in the comms game, underserved by Telstra (Because it would not be profitable enough to service me better) despite being one hour from the CBD of Melbourne, I am unreservedly FOR the NBN. Apart from anything else, twenty years or so of the profit motive has us left with a copper network which is creaking at the seams and the big T has no intent to do anything other than just keep on patching it up where it breaks down rather than doing anything about replacing it properly. To leave it up to the market means that the most lucrative areas will get the best services and everyone else can make do or move house!

[strongmanmike]

Why do you feel the need to label specific individuals Chris? I didn't label you? Why must you make this personal? Crikey, the issues are NOT really that big :screwy: :shrug:...

No biggy but fair suck of the sav, shake of the sauce bottle and pickle me grandmother :lol:

[Omaroo]

I'm labelling your like-minded group of politicians Mike - as they have a propensity to smugly label conservatives with some fairly tasteless and cynical terms. "Your" is a collective term in this context. If you feel that I've singled yourself out, then I apologise, because that's not the case.

As I said, I'm satisfied that the base technology would work if implemented. What more do you want? Whether it can be managed properly, we'll see. Maybe... not holding my breath though. The point that extreme proponents of the NBN are still missing is that the business case is, has and was never clearly established beyond reasonable doubt - like every other time a business case has been recently requested - only to be met with deriding and derogatory remarks and doing nothing more than neatly deflecting the question. Sheesh! No other government I know of in our recent past has ever neglected to recognise the absolute importance of providing this. "Because it's a great idea" isn't enough.

The Snowy Mountains scheme is a parallel here - and the planning that proceeded the building of this monumental, country-changing scheme was nothing short of monumental in itself. They'd put recent NBN justification efforts to absolute shame. As a side point, if I recall, Allan Jones did a pretty decent job in rallying support behind people like me who didn't want to see the Snowy scheme sold off to the Chinese for pittance.

Oh yes... and add "mooooving fooorwud" to your list... :)

[The_bluester]

Actually, to your last point Chris, I would ask one question. Leaving aside wether or not to structurally seperate Telstra, leaving aside the likely stark inequality of services between "Profitable" and not so profitable areas. When the whole show is run on the profit motive, and the company which is making the most profit wants to eeke out as much profit as possible for as long as possible, while doing their best to use their market power to squeeze out competition. When the profit motive has finally led to the copper network becoming untenable, or simply incapable of supporting the services that we as a country require, who is then going to pay for a network upgrade and who is going to own it? How do you build up a dollars and cents business case on enabling actual competition in the industry rather than claytons competition where one of the "Competitors" owns the network over which most of the services are delivered and makes the lions share of the profit on those services regardless of who actually bills the end user, and makes a tidy sum on many of the rest as well (Such as ULL services where Optus, or whoever else has installed a DSLAM in your exchange and they deilver the service from that equipment, Telstra still make a profit on those services via leases for exhange space and charges for the copper lines to actually deliver the service)

As long as the main network is owned by a competitior in that market place they are always in a position to be a great gorilla in the market. What other proposal except the NBN concept removes that? Structural seperation may, but then the poor old copper network runs into the ground, managed by a seperate company and either never gets upgraded, or they put their hand out to government to help upgrade it (They tried that already pre NBN) or they charge us prices to make a more commercial rate of return on building it.

On this sort of infrastructure I actually like a quote by Terry Pratchett. the profit from government installed infrastructure that business would not have installed turns up "Spread around the community" rather than in the pocket of company shareholders.

[CraigS]

I don't think I'd be daring enough to hold my breath on that one, Chris ..
.. Did you see some of the timescales for deployment in Ferris' graphs ?

I agree with this point.
Unfortunately, clever business managers (in NBN) will be very capable of supporting the initial decisions with carefully selected business models, which clearly from Ferris' 'justification' points, include lavish helpings of the 'build it and they will come' justification strategies …

The technology game is all about building in accordance with an agreed business model. In this case, the existing infrastructure costs must have been inflated to compensate for Warren's point ...

When one has a large disgruntled workforce who refuse to do their jobs, one has a large cost burden to overcome in the business model.

If one has no solution to this problem other than rolling a truck to replace what is 'refused to be worked upon', then one might as well build in a technology which has a chance of satisfying them AND meeting future bandwidth needs.

… My (assuredly informed) 2 cents worth.

Cheers

[strongmanmike]

Well..I did see the pre edited versions of your post :rolleyes:. Using the words "your type" has clear derogatory undertones, it's just not necessary... but no hard feelings though :thumbsup:

Mike

[Peter Ward]

Here is a verbatium extract from Telstra's USO policy document:

The universal service regime also includes the digital data service obligation, which is the obligation to ensure that either:
(i) general digital data services; or
(ii) special digital data services;
are reasonably accessible to all people in Australia on an equitable basis, no matter where they live or conduct business.

I don't see how "obligation to ensure" can be read as "best effort"

[Omaroo]

Same dude. :P

[AndrewJ]

Gday Ray



I fully agree copper wire is normally robust and has worked well.
( I also like rs232 comms to my scope ;) )
My comment was more in reference to the statement that undersea cables have little or no problems.
Ie It was more to point out that its not only the technology used, but the implementation of it that is important.

Ie Undersea cable=very expensive to fix and will cost company a bucket load of cash ( and maybe lose lots of customers ) if it fails=do it properly

Copper to my house=can ignore em if reqd and if i annoy and lose em, do i really care=no=do it as cheap as possible.

With the NBN, to me the fibre side of it is just the equivalent of building a road network.
I think all the problems are going to end up at the ends of the cables,
.


Andrew

[The_bluester]

OK fair enough, but do a little more digging before using the USO to say that they are obliged to provide anything useful. Now having dug further through Telstra's policy documents and having found the (Seperate) Digital USO policy document, they are obliged to provide the following to 93% of the population.



Taken straight from the policy. In other words the USO mandates that you get a connection speed equivalent to what Australians generally had around a decade ago. It has actually been updated as it used to be 9600 baud. Anything above 64KBPs is best effort for commercial return. If you can not get DSL, and you are in a wireless blackspot and have trees all round your house, preculding a LOS to a satellite service, if you can get 64KBPS over your 30km of phone line then "There you go" USO satisfied. Want anything more, "Best effort"

Hardly a creditable alternative to an NBN or NBN like build out.

My previous quote about the USO was also direct from the Telstra website by the way.

[Ray?]

My understanding is that the NBN (the cable) is not going to all Australians (prohibitively expensive) and that there will be a fair percentage that will still have to rely on alternative (aka existing) broadband solutions. For many, the NBN isn't going to provide anything dramatic over what they already have available and some may in fact lose out because they may end up paying more for the equivalent of what they already have available.

Until the government fully 'fesses up to what the NBN entails, I reckon everyone has just cause to be somewhat doubtful about the entire venture. Afterall, this government doesn't have all that good a track record on achievements.

Cheers

Ray

[mswhin63]

6000 house per day, over 10 years is 21,900,000 home. I suppose that mean most house will be covered.

The rest will use wireless or satelitte technology using best speed. Already NBN rejects are offered satelitte at impressive speeds although data allowances are a bit suspect.

[The_bluester]

I do not see that as all that likely. Granted, fibre is to be to somewhere over 90% of the population, but those who can not get that are quite unlikely to get the 12mbps that NBN alternative services are supposed to deliver via what services they would already have.

I suspect that given previously released plans I will fall just off the edge of the fibre footprint, and as much as I dislike radio services, if it is properly provisioned so that the promised 12M is reliable then I would get approximately four times the download speed I currently have.

Unlike the current 3G "Best effort" where they talk in terms of speeds that would make even close in DSL customers getting high data rates drool but most people actually get something like a 1.5M connection equivalent (If they are lucky and the wind is blowing the right way and the cell is not congested)

We have Telstra Next G phones at work, and the performance has become far more unreliable and to be honest, generally poorer even when it is working right over the last 12 months. Best effort again, even if it has not gone to vodafail extents.

[mswhin63]

The current 3G network is quite poor as it is severely affect by congestion but NBN are likely to use 4G instead of 3G. Vivid wireless here in Perth use primarily 4G and is suppose to handle congestion better then 3G. I think it will be difficult to assess the final radio product until it is implemented. Satellite on the other hand may be better because it has modulation which allows a single channel to be allocated to a single client so the bandwidth is never exceeded (based on system that I have serviced). If they can combine modulation methods of data communication like mention in the presentation we could see satellite handle a lot more individuals although not sure if that would require space hardware changes (difficult) or not.

[The_bluester]

The congestion problem simply can not be overcome in the way of competing telcos after you mobile dollar. They provision enough bandwidth to get away with it for now and provision some more when enough people join that the performance drops enough to make people start screaming or leaving.

The NBN setup however is supposed to be different and would work better. It is a wireless fixed broadband network rather than a mobile broadband network. So the number of users in a given cell is known and performance should be more reliable.

The work phones on NextG were pretty flash a year or so ago, now at head office (Melbourne CBD) they have so many users contending for it that the performance has gone away so badly that work have provisioned a wifi network in the building which all company iphones automatically migrate to when you get near the office.

[mswhin63]

Yes that is correct, the primary reason is commercialisation, the network all of them are only interested in less bang for more of their own buck. NBN being wholesale only will solve this completely. The NBN will resolve this in exactly the same way you mentioned. It can only be a good thing. When i get to Uni i immediately connect to the wireless network to do anything far better than 3G.

I am hoping that NBN though will not go the way of Telstra is with my current connection. I currently have a fault where my connection is very unstable yet IINET have to prove to Telstra that their network is unstable before they will handle any requests. Hopefully this will not happen although I believe it won't based on the technology in provisioned for NBN. Another wait and see!

[Peter Ward]

Actually, you just reminded me, 64kBps is not tragic...you can send email, download the SMH in a few seconds etc..provided it is a consistent 64K.

To cut to the chase, I badgered Telstra in to restoring my cable service to its normal bandwidth after having been "shaped" to 56KBps due to a usage exceedance by my son.

The "shaped" delivery was in fact less than 1 kilobyte of data over 10 minutes...I was all too happy to take them to the ACCC for pedaling bald-faced lies about their intentionally knobbled service.

BTW, the telecommunications Ombudsman was excellent here :thumbsup:

Oddly enough, they have never "shaped" our service since. :D

Suffice to say, Telstra will be a customer of NBN. What they pay for fibre capacity and what you, as an end user, actually get will be interesting.

[mswhin63]

This is where the competition comes into play and that Telstra will not be the only company to sell services. This is far better than what Telstra are forced to do to other companies. My example above is clear about the current situation.