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morls
13-05-2011, 07:07 PM
Some good news in the Sydney Morning Herald...

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/la-nina-in-death-throes-forecasters-20110513-1elmr.html

Octane
13-05-2011, 07:08 PM
Woohoo, party time!

H

gary
14-05-2011, 12:03 AM
It is indeed good news but she is going begrudgingly, kicking and screaming.

There are several metrics by which it is measured of which the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) is one. The BOM reported the SOI for last month, that is April 2011, as 25.1.

See table here - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
See graph here - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

Positive SOI values are usually indicative of La Lina events and 25.1 is very high
by La Nina record standards. By comparison, it was 19.9 in January when the
Brisbane River broke its banks. Originally, meteorologists had been predicting
La Nina would bne gone by April and it seems some of them were scratching
their heads when the SOI was so high in April. Other metrics, however,
indicate that the "La Niņa event is nearing its end, with most indicators
approaching neutral values."

What was significant about the most recent La Nina event was that it was also
in conjunction with a wet Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event. The two don't
necessarily work in phase but this time around was one of the rare times they
did, hence the record flooding. The IOD is now neutral.

The girl-child certainly brought her share of death, destruction and misery
this time around during her tantrum.

morls
14-05-2011, 06:35 AM
The graph is interesting, both the duration and intensity of this La Nina event appear to be greater than any other event in the five year period covered...

Benno18
14-05-2011, 07:13 AM
'Rain is expected to return to normal ranges during the neutral phase.'

So does that mean the west will actually get some rain for a change??
Anything would be good.


ANYTHING
:sad::sad::sad::sad::sad:

Ric
15-05-2011, 04:57 PM
After all that rain we've gone very dry all of a sudden.

In the last month we've recorded 1.5mm of rain and the dam is starting to look a bit dry.

I'm getting the impression its going to be a cold and dry winter.