Impact of the latest China/US tariff war!!

[Merlin66]

Well, reading through the list of products being impacted by the latest round of increased tariffs, all 194 pages! discloses some interesting items - besides bicycles....

Daystar may be interested to see that mica sheet (used in their solar filters) 25.25.10/ 6814.90.00 are on the list.

Digital cameras - 8525.80.50:eyepop:

Lenses/ Objective lenses/ Prisms/ Mirrors - 9001.90.40/9001.90.50/9001.90.60/ 9002.11.90:eyepop:

and optical filters - 9002.20.80
not sure the magnifiers includes eyepieces - 9013.80.20
but tripods are definitely included (All materials) - 9620.00.00

If these tariffs go ahead I can only see a negative impact on astronomical equipment, with higher prices!!

[multiweb]

I've heard 10% penalty effective immediately rising to 25% at the end of the year but for bikes and helmets.

[glend]

This should not effect Australian prices that importers like TASCO pay ex-factory, and should not affect inbound GSO pricing to to Australian buyers. Sure if you buy something from a US retailer, it will cascade to you if US wholesalers and distributors pass it on.

Chinese factories can use non-US distribution channels to maintain market share. I believe Skywatcher US would be impacted as would Celestron in the US, and brands which are exclusive or primarily US names like Explore Scientific. Camera makers like ZWO should not be affected for Australian customers.
Let's see how it plays out. The impact of the buying power of the falling AUD might be more significant.

[AndyG]

I expect the Chinese to adapt to this - with a possible redesign of their distribution system to avoid the tollgates/exposure to liability where possible. Perhaps some new brand names (HQ'd in different countries) will appear, from the same OEMs. They ain't stupid.

[DarkArts]

True, but neither is the US. They look at 'country of origin' for parts and materials and put in a fair amount of effort to trace those.

Regarding Australian prices, am I the only one who thinks that Australian distributors would use any excuse to raise prices and blame it on factors 'beyond their control'?

[LewisM]

America sh!ts, we wipe. Nothing changes.

[billdan]

The Yanks owe the Chinese so much money this is the only way they can get a trade balance.

[LewisM]

Yeah, the Chinese own $1.2 TRILLION of US debt.

Breaking news is that China will retaliate on concurrently with the US tariffs on September 24th.

[glend]

The Chinese do not import enough from the US to have any sort of equivalent impact with a tariff response. I can't help thinking this is all a stunt to boost Trumps Republican poll numbers ahead of the 6th of November mid-term elections. Since most of the Chinese manufactured goods no longer have US made alternatives, the US consumers will pick up the cost of the tariff when they buy their Tv's, dishwashers, etc. and this effectively becomes a consumption tax on US buyers.

[AndrewJ]

And they themselves are second only to the US in debt
so who wins????
The whole lot is a ponzi scheme built on debts of imaginary money that probably cannot be repaid.


Andrew

[FlashDrive]

Ain't that the truth ... spot on ..!!

[AndrewJ]

Just thinking about this, the ethereal ponzi nature of it all, and how unconventional Trump is when it comes to international relations :-)
If i was Trump, i would simply make up an invoice to cover all the claimed theft of IP, including blatant copyright and patent breaches etc
It would match the current debt.
Problem solved :-)

Andrew

[DarkArts]

This could actually be attempted. In one form or another. Maybe. Sort of.


Unfortunately, collection enforcement would require the entire US military ... so I wouldn't call that 'problem solved'.

(For the sake of discussion, I'm ignoring the smiley and obvious facetiousness.)

[LewisM]

Another problem is the complete lack of intellect these days in the USA. So, does US IP really exist? :lol:

They really aren't very exceptional for the exceptional nation they claim to be.

[AndrewJ]

Gday Lewis

You cant let minor details like that get in the way of an ambit legal claim.
If lawyers cant lie on your behalf, the civilised world will crumble.

Andrew

[RyanJones]

100% true. The US' GDP barely covers the interest on their debt...... Unless you collapse the system to reduce interest rates. Wiping trillions off the value of the debt...... The GFC came from higher than wall st trade monkies.

[OICURMT]

People tend to get fixated on deficit, but that's not really the most important metric when it comes to sovereign fiscal strength when analyzing economics in a global sense.


That said, here are a couple of link to deficits.



http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html


An “arguably” better metric is the current account balance (CAB), as this is an indicator of the underlying health of a nation and its "cashflow".

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html


The USA is in trouble, but is managing its deficit “ok”. Unfortunately, the CAB is getting deeper to the point where the increasing negative balance cannot be arrested (i.e. the rate of change in the CAB is getting worse).


Slag the US all you want, but the only nations to survive will be those with a positive CAB and very few nations are on the list (67 out of 202 nations). Someone here with a macro-economics may have a different view (e.g. zero-sum economics etc...) but I think the entire world is due for a "reboot".


OIC!

[silv]

Compared with your current chart where it says $466,2bn:

Sept 2008 shows as $738.6bn (https://web.archive.org/web/20080910051709/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html) (snapshot from waybackmachine),
in 2007, the erliest snapshot on the waybackmachine and only 1 year earlier, it was at $862.3bn.

When Trump took office it was at $469.4bn. (https://web.archive.org/web/20170117051614/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html)

So your statement "Unfortunately, the CAB is >>getting deeper<< to the point where the increasing negative balance cannot be arrested (i.e. the rate of change in the CAB is getting worse)" is not factual.

However, if you WANT to be alarmed, there is a reason for that, too. A prediction tool for recession is the inverted yield curve: from the day that longterm interest rates, 10 years, fall below short term interest rates (3 months), it takes 6 to 18 months for the US to develop a recession.
The Fed Bank monitors and updates this same PDF monthly. So you can bookmark it for future, current reference. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
Top chart shows the past recession as grey bars.
Here's the daily current view https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread
Recession in 2020 is likely. Just when the Trumpist regime will hand over to the Dems (probably) and they get to clean up the Rep's mess, >again<. Dems are telling this narrative: that it was always a Rep's administration causing the recession, and the Dems inheriting it to clean it up. That cycle left the false impression in voters' minds that Dems have no fiscal/economic competence since it's always under a Dem administration that the people suffer from a recession.

:)

[casstony]

The list of criticisms that can be squarely aimed at the US is long, but I sure as hell hope they prevail over totalitarian China. Profit seems a poor excuse for empowering an oppressive regime.

[multiweb]

I'm just waiting to see what China is going to say about IP and "transfer" of technology. :lol:

[silv]

I love this tool with data up to 2016 showing worldwide trade by product and by country. Here's Australia - what a healthy economy, aye?
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Destinations

Here's Norway (https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/nor/all/show/2016/) in the year 2016. Almost 50% of their exports are fossil fuel. But: most of the earnings of this trade are the people's wealth, not the wealth of a few individuals. 67% of StatOil are still in the hands of the state and were not privatised.
If African countries only followed Norway in this... their natural resources could heal all 55 countries on the continent in one go. Poverty would be gone, education would rise - hatred among ethnic nations would cease.
Instead, "western" human beings continue to rape the people. 100 years ago, it was "western countries", now it's "western corporations" doing it.

And here's the US. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/#Trade_Balance
And Russia https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/#Trade_Balance

Funny how all countries' economies kicked off from ~2001 onwards. 10 years after the iron curtain fell?
Or was it China's (https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/#Trade_Balance) huge population emerging out of poverty in the 90s and formally joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001?

[AndyG]

Sounds nice, and I hope you're right - I really do. The alternative is, they'd just pump resources into their military(s), in an effort to resolve said border disputes once and for all.

Nobody knows... I suspect however, that there may be a little padlock on this thread's icon, by the time I get home from work.

[glend]

And have you been following what China is doing with AI, facial recognistionl, video surveliance, and "Social Credit". It's sort of like Facebook for oppression, they will score you based on your opinions, relationships, and party alignment; and only the ones that are best fit for the government's vision of the China will get access to the good schools, jobs, etc. Minorities, dissidents, those with non-party opinions will be discriminated against. Big Brother.

[casstony]

Yeah it's very scary Glen; I saw the show on ABC last night.

On the other hand, we might build up brownie points buying telescopes and visiting astronomy websites. Just need to get your beer on the black market.

[LewisM]

Hang on, you are telling me the US doesn't do this? You could not be that delusional.

I can guarantee you 100% it's been going on in the US just as long and continues to. Facebook, Google, airport fingerprinting and scanning and so on ad infinitum. Same same, different oppressive regime.

[casstony]

Still a massive difference between the two countries Lewis - I can call Trump an idiot when I'm in the US; I wouldn't risk calling Xi Winnie the Pooh if I was in China.

[OICURMT]

Great post, great links... thanks.



However, I think your listed chronology is a little too narrow. My statement was based on the WEF analysis done last year. Maybe I should readjust my macro view, but the trend (from a statistical PoV) is clear (at least to me).

From the WEF (https://www.weforum.org)


<LATE EDIT> Added second image.

[skysurfer]

Indeed. Facebook has some shady practices to mine personal data, and Google is not better with their shady practices and treatint the internet as it is theirs.
This is the new 'communism', i.e. just a few companies (the Big Five: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft) are controlling over 90% of the internet. Now it is not a government, but commercial companies.

ON TOPIC:

I think there a two reasons Trump is doing this:
1. He does not know what diplomacy is.
2. He is scared that China will soon take over the US as the number one world economy. And the EU is another threat for him.

About prices of electronics ? Well, in AU and EU a few will change, but the US consumers will be hit hard and that will cost votes for the 6 Nov midterm elections.