Red Nova in Cygnus 2022

[bigjoe]

Professor Lawrence Molnar and his team at Calvin College Michigan, on a very low budget , has found evidence indicating that this binary pair( KIC 9832227*) will merge in roughly five to six years time.
This event, they claim, will cause an outburst of light bright enough, that it may well become the brightest object in the night sky bar the Moon.

A lot of work is now being done on contact binaries..so a very interesting field for researchers ..and indeed for all of us.
There discussing this on CN but I thought it would be interesting to inform others on IIS.
https://futurism.com/exploding-binary-stars-light-sky-2022/

bigjoe.

[OzEclipse]

Hi Joe
Agreed possibly very interesting. Here is an IIS post from last January that contains links to some other articles about this object :

http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?t=152291

Unfortunately it is in Cygnus at declination +46 and therefore only visible for quite short observing windows from the south. Let's hope it blows at the right time of year for us to enjoy the show as well as the north and at the same time, that there are no planets in that solar system with life about to be exterminated.

Joe Cali

[bigjoe]

Thanks Joe Ill have a look.
bigjoe.

[bigjoe]

And heres the documentary about the star thats about to explode..
http://luminous-film.com/
A world first!!
bigjoe

[astroron]

Due north here in May 2022 and at 16° Altitude will be low on the Meridian at 04:06 but easily observable from here at my observing site.
BTW I will be getting close to 80 so don't know if the old bones will be up to observing that low down:P
Cheers:thumbsup:

[bigjoe]

Ron ..you'll do it ...I know you will, this is right up your alley!
Just imagine catching the event live!!
bigjoe.

[astroron]

Joe, your enthusiasm is much appreciated, Now it is up to me to repay
your faith in my longevity and good health by doing just that. :D
Cheers:thumbsup:

[bigjoe]

Still a Spring Chicken , Ron; keep eatin your greens.
You'll make it mate, I have absolute confidence in your tenacity!
bigjoe

[skysurfer]

In the S&T article, it is said that it would be 'visible to the naked eye' which means +6 or brighter, so don't expect an Eta Carinae 1843 event with magnitude -1.
The coordinates depict somewhere between Deneb and Vega.

[bojan]

I'll be 72 then.. who knows, maybe...

[astroron]

The star concerned is currently mag + 12.1 and fairly close to the mag +6.1
Open Cluster NGC 6811
Cheers:thumbsup:

[astroron]

I thought there was something with your chart?,till I looked at your location.
Everything is upside down and back to front:question: :P
Cheers:thumbsup:

[OzEclipse]

Don't those people up in the north feel sick standing upside down???

There are many estimates of the apparent brightness of KIC 9832227 at collision. The current marketing bumpf being put out by Calvin College is saying it will be the brightest object in the sky bar the Moon. Guess they don't count the Sun.

I think at 1850 l.y. it's unlikely to be mag -8 but then who knows?? Interesting event. If it is that bright it will cause light pollution issues as does the moon. Maybe we are in the box seat down here, we can watch it when it pops over the horizon for a few hours per night but can still do other work

Joe

[astroron]

It surely won't be as big as a Full Moon just a very bright light about double the size of Venus or even possibly smaller.:question:
Tycho's Supernova of 1572 apparently reached about mag-4.1 and the distance to the supernova remnant has been estimated to between 2 and 5 kpc (approx. 6,500 and 16,300 light-years), but recent studies suggest a value closer to 2.5 and 3 kpc (approx. 8,000 and 9,800 light-years).
Tycho's is about 3 times the distance,but still it was only a bright star in the sky that generally had to be pointed out to people.
I hope it is really bright,but as you say Joe it will be nice and low down on the horizon for you in the south of the country.
Probably 10° altitude at its maximum.
I wonder how many times it will be reported as a UFO,?
what with it's low elevation and twinkling, it should get the crazies dialing up with what new technology they will be using in five years time. :P:lol:
Cheers:thumbsup:

[skysurfer]

The chart is south up, i.e. correct for Australia and most parts of the world. But as others say, don't expect a Venus like brigjt star. In most favorable case it gets +2, as the star is currently +12 which means a whopping 10000x brightness increase.

[bigjoe]

From the math here ..exactly +2 ..but somewhere else Ive heard this is a cautious estimate, and likely much brighter ..but who knows..its actually already happened that far away..light hasnt reached us yet..Just have to wait till more data comes in.
bigjoe.

[silv]

The event has been cancelled and no alternative date has been given.
All relevant publications cited here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KIC_9832227

I thought it best to just revive this old thread since it already contains some valuable URLs and background info.

I find it odd that there's no talk about new calculations and conclusions with the better data set.

[mental4astro]

You're kidding! :atom::atom::tasdevil::tasdevil:

That'll be right. I buy the tickets, and the sods cancel without notice. Now I'll be chasing my tail to get a refund out from Switzerland. Yeah, good luck...
:mad2::mad2::fight:

[silv]

:D I knew it would be particularly hard for you, Alexander. Please don't kill anyone.

[mental4astro]

:fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: :fight: