Geomagnetic storm predicted for 13-15 April

[Paul Haese]

Yesterday there was an M6.5 flare from an active region on the Sun. That flare released a coronal mass ejection and that is due to hit our magnetic field on the 13th of April.

Predictions at this stage look like a K6 or G2 class storm. This is the same as the storm on the 17th of March which resulted in some really nice shots being taken by Colin and Greg.

It looks once again like I will be clouded out, but I just wanted to give people a heads up.

[Octane]

Been monitoring this, too.

But, cloud cover looks crap. :(

H

[Paul Haese]

Predictions look good for this to start today and keep going into the night. Another M Class flare occurred over night and there is a chance for an X class flare today. If that transpires get ready for some nice aurora in the coming week. For the next 4 days before the moon gets too bright we may have a bit of a show. Fingers crossed. Some links for your purusal.

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/SouthPolar/2013/04/12

http://dx.qsl.net/propagation/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

[multiweb]

How far North would these be visible you reckon?

[CapturingTheNight]

Fingers crossed indeed.

Finding clear skies is going to be the biggest issue for this one. For the predicted 4am tomorrow morning arrival (+/- 10 hours) the best spot (according to Skippy) seems to be Adelaide through to the central Vic. The exact arrival time is hard to predict though. The one in March that Colin and I (and others) were able to get arrived about 8 hours late. I'm kind of hoping that this is also the case for this one as Sunday evening/night looks easier to find clearer skies. Even if it does arrive on time, if the last display is anything to go by, then there should still be plenty of energy left in it for a better than average chance of it continuing into Sunday night.

Marc: About the limit of the similar strength display in March was Grahams shots from Lake Ballard in WA, but it was very faint from there. Based on what I saw from Mt Buffalo in Vic, as long as you had dark skies, an elevated and unobstructed view and no major sources of light pollution on the horizon to the south, I would think that you could easily photograph it from anywhere below a line between say Perth and Sydney (maybe even much higher).

Edit: Skippy has updated since I posted. Looks even worse now.

[Kunama]

I am going to the roof of Australia tonight to have a peek at this! Hopefully will be above the cloud level again :astron:

[Rob_K]

Spaceweather 1 - Terraweather 0. :sadeyes:

Cheers -

[Paul Haese]

Greg which predictors are you using. G2 storm should be starting now, but time will will. I am going for all night at this stage. Might have to leave the wife at home. She does not want to sleep in the Car all night. Can't understand why???;)

[CapturingTheNight]

Wishing you the best of luck Paul. I like this one http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/ It has actually changed since I looked at it yesterday (when I got the 4am AEST). It now looks like 7am (AEST) tomorrow. The times are in UT so you need to adjust to convert to local time.
But all predictions are just that- predictions. Until the satellites start physically detecting the storm it is really up in the air. If I had even a slight chance of getting some clear skies I would be out all night tonight, but the cloud forecast has got even worse here, so I am pinning my hopes on Sunday night.

[Lester]

Some cloud is okay, as I see a small patch of blue sky to the south. Hope it clears this time Paul, as we missed the last one. All the best.

[Paul Haese]

I am going to add that one to my list Greg. Time will tell how accurate it will be.

Lester, yes I hope we get a shot at it this time. I am preparing to stay out all night just to get a chance of imaging this. I am sorting my sites out at present, just so that I get the best scenery.

[Paul Haese]

Looks like it has just started. KP up to 3 and solar wind climbing towards 500k

[alexch]

Looks like the impact is considerably weaker than expected in both density and velocity of the solar wind. It may still increase though.

[Octane]

Cloud... look at the national satellite radar. :(

H

[Lester]

Although I got some good photos of the Milky Way last night and some air glow; still live in hope for aurora soon.

[gary]

Just speaking with Andrew Murrell. Both he and Mike managed to image the
aurora last night at Lostock, Hunter Valley NSW.

Posting in the star parties forum by Lydia who also took an image at Lostock which may well
have detected a green glow.

[alexch]

I doubt it was Aurora - there was no increase in geomagnetic activity last night. Most likely it was strong airglow.

Tonight's Aurora prospects look much slimmer now. The CME impact is nowhere near the predicted levels and a visual Auroral display is not likely to reach Australia or Tasmania.

[CapturingTheNight]

I had a camera running from 11pm till dawn last night. Lots of green airglow but no aurora. Certainly looks like a fizzer at the moment. Numbers need to improve a heap before I even think about battling these clouds tonight.

As Alex just said Gary, airglow is the most likely cause of the green. The aurora numbers were flat lined the whole night. I'll post a frame from my timelapse soon.

[mbaddah]

There was no aurora sighted here at Lake Tekapo, NZ either :( Stayed up till 1am with the hope of seen it.

[Octane]

Just got an alert that activity is at level 8 now in the southern hemisphere. Hrm...

H

[gary]

Thanks Alex,

They will be disappointed. :)

[Octane]

Looks like activity is increasing.

The harpoons are manned. Giving it another hour and then I'm heading south.

H

[DavidU]

On it's way up, 26 GW right now.

[Lester]

Still got a little way to go for us to get anything tonight; but it is heading in the right direction. All the best chaps.

[Paul Haese]

Yep might be a fizzer but the air glow might make it worth while just to get some images of that. Some cloud cover for us down south, but not too thick. I will head out shortly for the hours drive down to Petrel Cove or Kings Beach. Wishing you all luck.

Auroral oval looks good and 29GW at present.

[Paul Haese]

Saw some very green sky glow tonight and got an image or two between the clouds.

[Octane]

Was it airglow, Paul? No aurora to be seen? It's gone very quiet. :(

The weather is atrocious over here.

H

[Paul Haese]

Just air glow H. Green as grass in the frame but a bright grey when looking visually.

No aurora on this occassion. I have lots of frames of rolling clouds affected by light pollution.

[Lester]

I also got lots of cloud, too thick to get any air glow. The old saying, Next time. All the best.